How to calulate your edge when beating the closing line

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Lets say hypothetically.

The opener for a game is Ov/Un 200

you bet over 200.

The closer is Ov/Un 204.5


you have a 4.5 point edge over the closer. How do you calculate your edge?

how is edge determined when betting using kelly?

Thanks in advance

[Pensinger1]

i might not understand your question, but not sure if you understand your question either... you're talking about placing a bet -> observing line movement -> then calculating your edge to decide how much you (already) bet?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

i might not understand your question, but not sure if you understand your question either... you're talking about placing a bet -> observing line movement -> then calculating your edge to decide how much you (already) bet?

yea it didnt make sense to me either. But i guess my real question is. How do kelly bettors bet according to their edge if when they bet they havent really assumed line movement. or in simplest terms. How is a kelly bet placed. is it in accordance to the point spread of the favorite or?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

i might not understand your question, but not sure if you understand your question either... you're talking about placing a bet -> observing line movement -> then calculating your edge to decide how much you (already) bet?

edited the Q, thought about it for a 2nd. hahaah

[Busterflywheel]

Is kelly really useable in todays gambling ages?

[Dunder]

The best place to start is the half point calcuator

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

In the specific example you mention, the correct odds for your bet (after the line has moved) would be -151.4 when adjusted for vig, meaning the probability of winning is 60.2%. On the basis that you have made this bet at -110, you would calculate your EV as follows:

Probability of winning the bet
divided by
Implied probability at odds taken

minus 1

i.e 60.2%/52.4% = 1.149
minus 1 =
= 0.149

Expressed as a percentage, you have a +EV of 14.9%

When using Kelly your edge or the probability is an estimate based on your own handicapping or modeling.

[runnershane14]

Good stuff Dunder!

[WileOut]

The best place to start is the half point calcuator

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

In the specific example you mention, the correct odds for your bet (after the line has moved) would be -171, meaning the probability of winning is 63.1%. On the basis that you have made this bet at -110, you would calculate your EV as follows:

Probability of winning the bet
divided by
Implied probability at odds taken

minus 1

i.e 63.1%/52.4% = 1.204
minus 1 =
= 0.204

Expressed as a percentage, you have a +EV of 20.4%

When using Kelly your edge or the probability is an estimate based on your own handicapping or modeling.

You are teaching me about this in another thread in think tank http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...-line-mls.html

I am going to ask another question here. Wouldn't the real probability of him winning his bet be the no vig probability? You would set the over under 200 to -100/-100, so that would end up at -151.5 for 204.5 closer, and a 60.24% chance at no vig? Don't you have to take the vig out of it to determine the real chance of winning when comparing the odds you took vs the closing odds? Or no?

[Dunder]

You are teaching me about this in another thread in think tank http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...-line-mls.html

I am going to ask another question here. Wouldn't the real probability of him winning his bet be the no vig probability? You would set the over under 200 to -100/-100, so that would end up at -151.5 for 204.5 closer, and a 60.24% chance at no vig? Don't you have to take the vig out of it to determine the real chance of winning when comparing the odds you took vs the closing odds? Or no?

Good spot, yes you are absolutely correct.
I have hastily edited my post so that I don´t look like a total idiot.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Thnx dunder

[roasthawg]

You have to estimate your edge before you make the bet in order to use kelly.

[Patrick McIrish]

Correct.