How do you calculate the no-vig line for MLs?

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  • PRC
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-22-09
    • 576

    #1
    How do you calculate the no-vig line for MLs?
    I think I can do it properly for spreads and totals but couldn't find anywhere he that explained how to calculate it for MLs. Also, what percentage do you need to gain from beating the closing line on spreads, totals, and moneylines for it to be +EV?

    Thanks
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    Lets say Team A is -140 and Team B is +120

    Team A: 140/240 = 0.5833
    Team B: 100/220 = 0.4545
    Overround = 0.5833 + 0.4545 = 1.0379

    So:
    0.5833/1.0379 = 0.5620 = -128.3
    0.4545/1.0379 = 0.4380 = +128.3
    Comment
    • PRC
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-22-09
      • 576

      #3
      Thanks LT. And how much would I need to beat the closing number by (in %) to make a bet +EV on spreads and moneylines? Do I need to beat the closing number by more than 4.55% every time?
      Comment
      • FreeFall
        SBR MVP
        • 02-20-08
        • 3365

        #4
        beating the closing number by anything will return positive expected value... The greater the number the more you make?
        Comment
        • byronbb
          SBR MVP
          • 11-13-08
          • 3067

          #5
          Comment
          • Busterflywheel
            SBR MVP
            • 12-13-09
            • 3991

            #6
            Originally posted by LT Profits
            Lets say Team A is -140 and Team B is +120

            Team A: 140/240 = 0.5833
            Team B: 100/220 = 0.4545
            Overround = 0.5833 + 0.4545 = 1.0379

            So:
            0.5833/1.0379 = 0.5620 = -128.3
            0.4545/1.0379 = 0.4380 = +128.3

            Perfect LT....
            Comment
            • WileOut
              SBR MVP
              • 02-04-07
              • 3844

              #7
              Ok a quick question about Justin's video above. He says for every 2 cents you beat the closing number by, you have a 1% edge. So how do we translate this to spreads in the NBA, NFL, NCAAB, and NCAA FB? In other words how much is a point worth in NBA? NFL? NCAABB? NCAAFB?

              edit: can we just use the half point converter, set the price to -100/+100, and then see what comes up? If so then for NBA, the first half point is worth about 7 cents. Then each additional half point you get away from the original spread is worth a little more than the last. If I am correct here (which I probably am not) then if you get +5.5 points instead of +4 (closing spread) on the dog, you are getting a 28 cent advantage and a 14% edge????

              To get the above I set HPC to NBA, 4 point spread, -100/-100 (0% edge), and looked at the numbers. To buy to 5.5 at no vig it says it would cost 27.8 cents for every dollar risked.
              Comment
              • Dunder
                Restricted User
                • 10-26-09
                • 3345

                #8
                Originally posted by WileOut
                edit: can we just use the half point converter, set the price to -100/+100, and then see what comes up? If so then for NBA, the first half point is worth about 7 cents. Then each additional half point you get away from the original spread is worth a little more than the last. If I am correct here (which I probably am not) then if you get 5.5 points instead of 4 closing on the dog, you are getting a 28 cent advantage????
                Yes, you have a 28 cent advantage but only if you you made the initial bet at +100.

                In this situation you actual EV would be calculated as follows (funnily enough I have just posted this in another thread)

                Probability of winning the bet
                divided by
                Implied probability at odds taken

                minus 1

                i.e 56.3%/50.0% = 1.127
                minus 1
                = 0.127

                Expressed as a percentage, you have a +EV of 12.7%
                Comment
                • WileOut
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-04-07
                  • 3844

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Dunder
                  Yes, you have a 28 cent advantage but only if you you made the initial bet at +100.
                  Ok so if you got +5.5 -110 instead of the closing price of +4 -105, how would you calculate this egde?

                  And I'm sorry, where did you get 56.3% and 50% above? I know this is way below many people here but I don't post much here in TT, please bare with me. I won't clutter it up I promise.
                  Comment
                  • Dunder
                    Restricted User
                    • 10-26-09
                    • 3345

                    #10
                    Originally posted by WileOut
                    Ok so if you got +5.5 -110 instead of the closing price of +4 -105, how would you calculate this egde?
                    It seems to me that you are 90+% of the way to being able to do this for yourself.
                    Give it a go!
                    Comment
                    • Dunder
                      Restricted User
                      • 10-26-09
                      • 3345

                      #11
                      Originally posted by WileOut
                      Ok so if you got +5.5 -110 instead of the closing price of +4 -105, how would you calculate this egde?

                      And I'm sorry, where did you get 56.3% and 50% above? I know this is way below many people here but I don't post much here in TT, please bare with me. I won't clutter it up I promise.
                      For the 56.3%, consider that you got the result from the calculator whereby the true odds for your bet after the line movement are -129 (1.775 in decimals/euro odds). This equates to a 56.3% probability (i.e 1 divided by 1.775).
                      Comment
                      • WileOut
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-04-07
                        • 3844

                        #12
                        I don't know how to account for the extra 10 cent difference from +5.5 -100 to +5.5 -110. Do I simply subtract 10 cents from +128 and make it +118, so I have 54.13. Then the -105 becomes 51.22. So 54.13/51.22 = 1.057-1 = 5.7% edge? I don't think that is right. It should be higher. I think I have to factor the fav prices in both spreads too somehow.
                        Comment
                        • Dunder
                          Restricted User
                          • 10-26-09
                          • 3345

                          #13
                          Originally posted by WileOut
                          I don't know how to account for the extra 10 cent difference from +5.5 -100 to +5.5 -110. Do I simply subtract 10 cents from +128 and make it +118, so I have 54.13. Then the -105 becomes 51.22. So 54.13/51.22 = 1.057-1 = 5.7% edge? I don't think that is right. It should be higher. I think I have to factor the fav prices in both spreads too somehow.
                          I have to step out for a couple of hours WileOut, but when I come back, we can go through it step by step. Your calculation above has some slight flaws and your reasoning is correct
                          Comment
                          • WileOut
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-04-07
                            • 3844

                            #14
                            ok thanks man.
                            Comment
                            • Peeig
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-06-08
                              • 567

                              #15
                              a cleaned up version of this calculation should be in the FAQ (if there ever is one) for noooobz
                              Comment
                              • Dunder
                                Restricted User
                                • 10-26-09
                                • 3345

                                #16
                                OK, for the purposes of this calculation you have taken +5.5 at -110
                                The closer was +4.0 at -105 (the other side would be -4.0 at -115).


                                If we use LTs calculation above to arrive at the no vig closer we get (-104.4/+104.4)

                                If we then take +4.0 at +104.4 into the half point calculator, we see that the correct odds for our bet at +5.5 should be -122.6
                                Expressed as a probability this is (122.6 / 222.6) 55.08%

                                This compares to the impied probability of the line (-110) we have taken which is (110 / 210) 52.38%

                                Our EV is therefore (55.08 / 52.38) -1
                                =+5.15%
                                Comment
                                • WileOut
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-04-07
                                  • 3844

                                  #17
                                  Thank you Dunder.

                                  Sorry to clutter up the TT with my newbness.
                                  Comment
                                  • blix177
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 09-20-08
                                    • 1520

                                    #18
                                    How did LT get these numbers?

                                    Team A: 140/240 = 0.5833
                                    Team B: 100/220 = 0.4545

                                    From these numbrs?
                                    Lets say Team A is -140 and Team B is +120
                                    Comment
                                    • aggieshawn
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-24-07
                                      • 4377

                                      #19
                                      good points
                                      Comment
                                      • IrishTim
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 07-23-09
                                        • 983

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by blix177
                                        How did LT get these numbers?

                                        Team A: 140/240 = 0.5833
                                        Team B: 100/220 = 0.4545

                                        From these numbrs?
                                        Lets say Team A is -140 and Team B is +120
                                        It's the implied winning percentage of the respective moneylines.

                                        For favorites, you calculate implied winning percentage: favorite moneyline divided by fave ML plus 100.

                                        Team A: 140/(100 + 140) = 58.33% implied WP

                                        For dogs: 100 divided by dog ML plus 100.

                                        Team B: 100/(120 + 100) = 45.45% implied WP

                                        Then you need to add these two numbers and anything over 100% is the "overround" (theoretical hold percentage): 58.33 + 45.45 = 103.78%

                                        Once you divide both implied winning percentages by the overround (3.78%), you'll have the no-vig line as LT showed.
                                        Comment
                                        • blix177
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 09-20-08
                                          • 1520

                                          #21
                                          So a -900 and +800 would be,

                                          Team A = 900/1000=.9

                                          Team B = 100/900= .1111

                                          Over Round = 1.0111

                                          .9/1.011 = .89
                                          .11111/1.01111 = .11

                                          Now I am lost how do I convert .89 and .11 to (-100/+100)ish lines?

                                          And what does a high overround vs a low overround implies if anything about the line?
                                          Comment
                                          • skrtelfan
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-09-08
                                            • 1913

                                            #22
                                            Low overround means less kept by the house, i.e. lower vig.
                                            Comment
                                            • Patrick McIrish
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-15-05
                                              • 2864

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by WileOut
                                              I know this is way below many people here but I don't post much here in TT, please bare with me. I won't clutter it up I promise.

                                              Don't worry about it, take advantage of this forum! Yeah some will give you a hard time but don't even worry with it. You got a question, ask. Everyone here had to learn somewhere. Plus there's probably another 100 guys that want to ask the same question but don't have the balls.

                                              And BTW while this might not make sense immediately, after running these formulas a few times they will become 2nd nature. In the meantime keep these thread in a file somewhere for quick reference. Good luck buddy.
                                              Comment
                                              • benjy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-19-09
                                                • 2158

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by blix177
                                                So a -900 and +800 would be,

                                                Team A = 900/1000=.9

                                                Team B = 100/900= .1111

                                                Over Round = 1.0111

                                                .9/1.011 = .89
                                                .11111/1.01111 = .11

                                                Now I am lost how do I convert .89 and .11 to (-100/+100)ish lines?

                                                And what does a high overround vs a low overround implies if anything about the line?
                                                After getting rid of the overround and verifying that your probabilities add to one (i.e. sum of percentages = 100)

                                                For probabilities < .5

                                                American Line = (1/P(x) - 1) * 100

                                                For probailiteis > .5

                                                American Line = (-1)*[1/(1-P(x)]*100
                                                Comment
                                                • Flight
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 01-28-09
                                                  • 1979

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by benjy
                                                  For probailiteis > .5

                                                  American Line = (-1)*[1/(1-P(x)]*100
                                                  I keep getting the wrong answer with that formula Benjy. Can you double check it? Here is the formula I usually use:

                                                  -100 / [(1/p) - 1]
                                                  Comment
                                                  • byronbb
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-13-08
                                                    • 3067

                                                    #26
                                                    Also look for ganchrows excel functions in the tools section.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Thremp
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-23-07
                                                      • 2067

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by FreeFall
                                                      beating the closing number by anything will return positive expected value... The greater the number the more you make?
                                                      If the line is efficient, yes.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • benjy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-19-09
                                                        • 2158

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Flight
                                                        I keep getting the wrong answer with that formula Benjy. Can you double check it? Here is the formula I usually use:

                                                        -100 / [(1/p) - 1]
                                                        I musta been 3/4 asleep. Sorry dude.

                                                        Your formula should work fine
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Newguyintown
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 12-24-05
                                                          • 348

                                                          #29
                                                          Hi gang,

                                                          Revisiting this and ran into a problem I was hoping someone could help me out with. So I'm trying to see how to calculate edge based on a closing line.

                                                          I'll stick with the same example from above. So let's take -140/+120. I see how we get 56.2% and 43.8% no-vig breakevens (and this translated to -128.3/+128.3). This is all precisely what Ganchrow's EXCEL chart says.

                                                          The problem is when I try to determine the edge of say a -130 wager. If I plug in -130 to the Ganchrow chart I get that its a -.56% wager. I'm basically trying to see how we get this.

                                                          So we need 56.52% to breakeven (130/230) and the true breakeven is 56.2%. So somehow its not just -.32 (56.2 - 56.52)? WHERE DOES THE -.56% COME FROM?

                                                          Any help please!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            Divide the "true" breakeven by the breakeven on the odds you got and subtract 1. So, (.562/.5652)-1
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Newguyintown
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 12-24-05
                                                              • 348

                                                              #31
                                                              ty!
                                                              Comment
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