Is there a difference between ingame points and point spread?

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  • blix177
    Restricted User
    • 09-20-08
    • 1520

    #1
    Is there a difference between ingame points and point spread?
    For the last few days I been playing in game betting, and notice that there is a HUGE discounts to in game points vs point spread. Let me put it another way.

    Bulls and Houston game, the spread is 6 points Rocket fav. Bulls run up a 5-0 lead early. But he lines (Bulls +6 for the whole game) remain -108 for the bulls, and +100 for the rockets. I am thinking it should be more like Bulls -200 at this point because your value 5 points off the point spread already, because of a 5-0 lead. But ingame betting those 5 points value is much less than pregame spread value.

    So what I am asking is is there a difference between ingame points and pregame spread points in valuation. I know at the end of the game they are completely the same, but at the start of the game do you discount scores someway?

    I see it in NFL and NCAAF too. Kick off touchdowns are worthless than the 7 points ingame spreads.
  • DOMINATER
    SBR MVP
    • 12-10-09
    • 3698

    #2
    Blix, is what your saying if you are a 7 point underdog is that seven points any different from a team scring 7. Sorry i think people having a hard time understanding your question can you explain it differently. Thanks
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    • u21c3f6
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-17-09
      • 790

      #3
      Yes there is a difference. The beginning line is an "accurate" predictor of how the game will end, not how it gets there. Pricing during the game is still trying to "predict" the end of the game. At the start of the game there won't be much movement unless one team breaks out with a ridiculous run of points. However as time elapses, pricing becomes more volatile. If the Bulls had that lead at the half, then you might see -200 and if there was only 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter, you might see -1200 or more. The pricing is very similar to "Greeks" of stock options if you are familiar with that.

      What I can tell you is that what you are observing can be very valuable to you. While pricing does an excellent job of "predicting" the end of the game, it does not always do a good job of "predicting" how it will get there which leads to many mis-priced opportunites to hedge. Just watch the pricing action (there must be decent liquidity) and you will begin to "see" how the pricing changes based on what is happening during the game. There are many times that the pricing goes too far one way or the other. By watching the pricing action, you will begin to notice these opportunities. The key IMO (at least for me) is not to predict as that will bias your decision. Let the odds and %'s dictate your wagers.

      Joe.
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