Home Chase based on JM...?

[Skanedogg]

i saw on a thread that there was a 3-game NBA chase based on a team with 3 home games and i was wondering if anyone here had done the backtest...?

i did a cursory backcheck over the atlantic division over the past 5 years and came up with a 115-4 record. assuming the same pace and record over the rest of the NBA, that would be 690-24 over the entire NBA over 5 years. under the JM chase system for buying 3 points (-170), that is a NET of 241 units over the past 5 years, which equates to about +48 units per year...

anyone confirm these numbers?

[Peep]

Yeah, whatever. Stop pushing that pile of crap.

And stop pretending you guys "just happened to stop by here, and were just wondering...." crap as well.

In the immortal words of the great moderator Willie Bee...."That dog ain't going to hunt".

[Dunder]

[LT Profits]

I think the words "chase" and "Martingale" should be barred from Think Tank.

[Skanedogg]

why do you guys act that way...? i am in no way associated with JM or anyone. i am not trying to sell anything at all. i personally think JM is an a$$-clown, but i also think that there is some value to three games series. and i have posted as much on here. i have not been here long, but i am not trying to sell JM.

it was just a question... i was just seeing if anyone had done the back-checking before i did it, saving me time if it had been done. thus a "yes, you can find that here"; "no, i don't think anyone has done that -- i would be interested to see the results"; or a simple no reply if you are not interested.

[LT Profits]

If a chase is profitable, it would probably be because the games that "closed" the chases were +EV, meaning you would have maximized profits using Kelly.

[bolekblues]

3-game series for home teams (regardless of opponent's conference)
Two last seasons win-loss (3pts bought, loss=18,68units)
2007-08: 132-13 = -111units
2008-09: 135-10 = -51,8units

So as long as I have no mistakes in formulas it appears to be decisively unprofitable strategy. If u want some JM modifications u can try playing all 3-game away series (includingopp from the same conf) or reverse JM (playing opponents of a team being on a road trip).

[Peep]

why do you guys act that way...?

Because you are the 85th posting persona to approach this issue this way. "Hey what do you guys think of..."

THEN put up a bunch of data.

Hell, you have all that data, bet the mother****er until you tap out, u should be sure of it, why not? You have the numbers, not us.

And BTW, JM is a crook who has stolen money off of gamblers. Justin7 has a good writeup on that here as well.

LT's point is obvious as well. IF the system worked, it would be profitable for one game as well. No need to cover it up with parlay bullshit.

[Marginalis]

looks good

[ericc]