To buy points or not to buy points????

**benjy** · 01-07-10, 10:24 AM

As a rule of thumb just use the half point calculator:

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http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

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**thebestthereis** · 01-07-10, 11:03 AM

in college don't buy points, in the nfl i rarely do unless it is a certain game and the number is 3. example, a ravens/steelers game i would buy on or off 3. in general i don't buy points.

**LLXC** · 01-07-10, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by benjy

As a rule of thumb just use the half point calculator:

http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Too...alculator.aspx

Calculator says it's okay to buy to -2.5 up to -152.5. Hmm.

**floridagolfer** · 01-07-10, 02:09 PM

IMHO, the chances that the final margin is within half, 1 or 1.5 points of the posted line is quite small. I say, don't buy.

**LT Profits** · 01-07-10, 02:17 PM

-2.5 -145 is good value, LLXC is exactly correct.

**LT Profits** · 01-07-10, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

IMHO, the chances that the final margin is within half, 1 or 1.5 points of the posted line is quite small. I say, don't buy.

usually yes, but 3 and 7 are the exceptions

**Raleigh77** · 01-07-10, 02:58 PM

I think this question gets to the heart of the two major factions on this board. The people who understand EV,EG, Kelly, value, math, etc., and the people who mistakenly think they know sports and can cap games better than LVSC, one of these groups wins long term and the other loses badly.

**xxbadazxx** · 01-07-10, 04:08 PM

THANKS FOR THE INPUT, I REALLY ENJOY ALL OF YOUR POSTS

**skrtelfan** · 01-07-10, 05:42 PM

Can't you shop around and find somewhere that would give you -2.5 -140?

**tltaylor89** · 01-07-10, 06:45 PM

Take Texas +4 and sleep easy

**LT Profits** · 01-07-10, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

Can't you shop around and find somewhere that would give you -2.5 -140?

I don't think he will find better the -2,5 -145, since most shops charge 20 cents to buy on or off of 3. Even for those that charge 15 cents, -4 -110 becomes -2.5 -150

**PAPSMEAR** · 01-07-10, 08:12 PM

ML might be the safe option for you instead...little fish are sweet they say

**LT Profits** · 01-07-10, 08:32 PM

-2.5 -145 in college foots is equivalent to -174.6 ML, so yes, current ML of -170 is better play.

**skrtelfan** · 01-08-10, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I don't think he will find better the -2,5 -145, since most shops charge 20 cents to buy on or off of 3. Even for those that charge 15 cents, -4 -110 becomes -2.5 -150

I didn't think I had particularly good outs but I still have several that charge 10c for the CFB 3. Maybe my outs are better than I realize.