BTP 'where are they now?'

[Mudcat]

Perhaps SBR could release a spreadsheet of past winners and their percentages?

I have asked around for this historical data a few times. Not because of something like DH is doing but just because I have a theory that I have the best combined record over the history of the contest and I hoped to prove it and then brag obnoxiously.

I asked some reasonably bright people like ganchrow but no one was able to help me.

[Sinister Cat]

For what it's worth, a couple of observations:
- I was the BTP Grand Prize winner last year (though aakj had a better record, but did not qualify for the prize.) I used the same methodology for making my picks this year and finished near the bottom. My percentage this season actually makes my performance look better than it was; my "best bets" were atrocious and my real-life bankroll was virtually wiped out over the 1st 6 weeks or so of the NFL season. A couple of 4-0 weeks at the end salvaged my contest record somewhat.
- I believe that last years record for participants as a whole was quite good, but that this year it was very bad. Possible reasons: Contest entry didn't require a deposit this year which may have allowed a lower caliber of player to enter. Or might indicate that contest players tend to pick sides that have certain characteristics, and while last year those tended to win, this year they did not.

[pokernut9999]

I was over 60% my 1st year
Little over 50 % last year
and awful this year.

[Dark Horse]

I remember a 64% ATS season I had in a contest with 7 picks per week, and the next year I had to struggle just to stay over 50%. These BTP results seems to suggest this is very common. I believe that the reason is that each NFL season has its own nature. Therefore, what works well one year may not work nearly as well the next year. So the trick is to be very 'awake' to the specific nature of the season in progress. This requires a great degree of flexibility. Those who are coming off a very good year are strongly inclined to rely on the same methods again, even thought these don't fit the new season. It may take a bad year to reevaluate one's methods.

During my 64% season I felt a tremendous grip over the NFL. I only had to look at three categories for each team and that would determine my picks. The method improved as the season progressed. By the time of the playoffs everything was crystal clear, and I knew the Superbowl winner by the time of the wild card round. But I had developed that method during the season in progress, and not in the season before! That, I saw later, was the key. After the season I could hardly wait for the next season to play it again. Sure enough, this beautiful, simple, superior method no longer worked. And its earlier success prevented me from seeing the new season through a fresh pair of eyes. I wasn't flexible and awake. I was living in the past. (I did move on to develop methods that work each season, but these aren't suited for contests of this type).

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks DH,

Stats like these really go to show people thats its not that easy. And it exposes those scamdicappers claims that they hit 80% and higher longterm is a complete joke.