A "beating the closing line" scenario to look at for tonight

[Reload]

We all hear about how beating the closing line is the advantage all the real betting pro's seek. In tonight's Wizards-Warriors game, I am in at the following...

Warriors -1
OVER 219

The Warriors line is now at -3 and the total has gone up to 222. Although the tip is a late one tonight, let's assume these close somewhere around where they are.

What advantage mathematically do I have with two points on the side and three points on the total? How much of an absolute lock will this be getting in at the early numbers compared to what they are now?

[durito]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

[Dunder]

All other things being equal, the probabilities of you winning these bets are approx:

Spread: 57.5%
Total: 56.5%

I would suggest some reading in order to get a good understanding of calculating and assessing EV.

[Reload]

Interesting, guys. Let's see if the overlay of points come into play.

[Reload]

I think on and off the 2 in the NBA is probably worth even more than the calculator gives it.

[durito]

I think on and off the 2 in the NBA is probably worth even more than the calculator gives it.

why

[Justin7]

I think on and off the 2 in the NBA is probably worth even more than the calculator gives it.

Yes, why?

[Reload]

I thought I've seen the Pinnacle half point sell drop downs on and off 2 in basketball be worth over 10 cents at times.

[Fishhead]

CBB is the sport to beat the numbers with.........bookies can't keep up.

Many times one will find 1.5 pt differences on moving games..........like this morning.

With a little experience, one will know which games will in all liklihood will not move back much, and probably continue to move in the direction of the early morning line movement even beyond the 1.5 pt barrier.


It pays to rise at 5am ET in this business.........

Best wishes,
RON

[Reload]

CBB is the sport to beat the numbers with.........bookies can't keep up.

Many times one will find 1.5 pt differences on moving games..........like this morning.

With a little experience, one will know which games will in all liklihood will not move back much, and probably continue to move in the direction of the early morning line movement even beyond the 1.5 pt barrier.


It pays to rise at 5am ET in this business.........

Best wishes,
RON

I agree that the early bird gets the worm, Fish!

Thanks for coming by the Fish Tank!

[BubbleBobble]

Reload and Fishhead should be banned from this part of the forum, all they know is how to make worthless piece of shit "calculations" like which NBA number is worth the most.
It's called spam, they don't know what else to post.
I have a hint for you two: The number "shut the **** up" is worth the most for a forum, in your case.

[Reload]

Reload and Fishhead should be banned from this part of the forum, all they know is how to make worthless piece of shit "calculations" like which NBA number is worth the most.
It's called spam, they don't know what else to post.
I have a hint for you two: The number "shut the **** up" is worth the most for a forum, in your case.

Great - someone else trying to be an attention whore today. What else is new.

[rkelly110]

Bubble BUTT, unless you got something to offer, blow it out your Bubble BUTT!

If you got a problem w/those guys, meet up and settle it like a man. JackASS!

[goblue12]

ML sports seem like a golden goose thanks to Matchbook's .01 lines. Just bet whenever you have a better line at loose books like SIA or WSEX and you're good to go. Problem is that no +EV ML bets are winning in the NHL at the moment, which means it's a good time to jump in.

I'm starting to place all my spread wagers at 2H. Covering at the same % and you don't sweat the whole rat race 5 min before the game starts. Plus it allows you to examine the board, throw all the +EV wagers into the Half-Point Calc and examine just how large the edge is and bet based off edge.