What is more accurate? The opening or closing line?

**roasthawg** · 11-05-09, 12:41 AM

Closing.

**suicidekings** · 11-05-09, 12:42 AM

The closing line. The opening line is just Vegas' best guess at the point that will draw even action on both sides, and sometimes they're right on the mark, while other times they get adjusted by the market.

**shantystar** · 11-05-09, 02:37 AM

closing line!

**diogee** · 11-05-09, 02:38 AM

Same sentiments as everyone else...the betting market makes the line.

**The General** · 11-05-09, 02:44 AM

Closers are best to use when handicapping or looking at trends IMO.

**byronbb** · 11-05-09, 03:13 AM

If the close was less accurate than the open we'd all be rich.

**20Four7** · 11-05-09, 05:09 AM

Originally posted by byronbb

If the close was less accurate than the open we'd all be rich.

I like that theory.

**patswin** · 11-05-09, 10:22 AM

closing

**Arilou** · 11-05-09, 11:55 AM

Closing, but actually if the closing line was less accurate it would mean that net action on lines was random or worse, and we'd all be broke while the bookies would be rich!

**floridagolfer** · 11-05-09, 01:08 PM

But just because the market moves a line doesn't necessarily make it a better number.

**roasthawg** · 11-05-09, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

But just because the market moves a line doesn't necessarily make it a better number.

Correct. I often won't like an opener but will play the closer if it's moved to a point where I see value.

**suicidekings** · 11-05-09, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

But just because the market moves a line doesn't necessarily make it a better number.

True. Important to note that sometimes an opening line is intended to be accurate, indicating the books don't have a significant lean one way or the other. Other times its shifted from the start to one side or the other, indicating that the books have a strong opinion as to who will win, and would obviously prefer more money to be bet on the side they think will lose.

So really, not all line movements are the same, and not every opening line is a square line.

**Dave Head** · 11-05-09, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by man3645

What is more accurate? The opening or closing line?

Instead of asking everyone for their opinion, why don't you do a little statistical analysis?

Intuitively, I would say that in general the closing line is more accurate. There are some exceptions. For example, some teams like the Dallas Cowboys attract a lot of square money (or at least they used to). So If the Cowboys were the favorite, and you wanted to bet on the dog, you might want to wait until late Saturday or early Sunday to place a bet.

**floridagolfer** · 11-05-09, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by Dave Head

Instead of asking everyone for their opinion, why don't you do a little statistical analysis?

Intuitively, I would say that in general the closing line is more accurate. There are some exceptions. For example, some teams like the Dallas Cowboys attract a lot of square money (or at least they used to). So If the Cowboys were the favorite, and you wanted to bet on the dog, you might want to wait until late Saturday or early Sunday to place a bet.

First, how do we define "more accurate?" In the truest sense, it would be the point where the number draws an equal amount of action on both sides. And only the book knows what that is.

**man3645** · 11-05-09, 06:02 PM

More accurate, meaning closest to the actual score....

**Peeig** · 11-05-09, 06:45 PM

Closing lines have been beat into shape....don't challenge the closing line.....it will damage you

**Justin7** · 11-05-09, 09:53 PM

A drunk throws a dart at the dart-board. It usually hits somewhere on the board.

The wise guys move that dart closer to the bull's-eye, while the other drunks keep nudging the dart in random directions. But the wise guys move it more.

In the end, the dart is almost always closer to the bulls-eye at closing than opening (but not always, especially in smaller sports).

**man3645** · 11-06-09, 12:06 AM

hmmm

**man3645** · 11-06-09, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

In the end, the dart is almost always closer to the bulls-eye at closing than opening (but not always, especially in smaller sports).

SO what you are saying Justin, is that the drunker you get, the better you are at shooting darts?

**Peeig** · 11-06-09, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

A drunk throws a dart at the dart-board. It usually hits somewhere on the board.

The wise guys move that dart closer to the bull's-eye, while the other drunks keep nudging the dart in random directions. But the wise guys move it more.

In the end, the dart is almost always closer to the bulls-eye at closing than opening (but not always, especially in smaller sports).

Do smaller sports include props?

**AceKingHigh** · 11-09-09, 12:13 AM

Ofcurse the closing line, it is much much closer to the game play time so its accurate

**MonkeyF0cker** · 11-09-09, 01:07 AM

Market efficiency should be a concern here.

**BubbleBobble** · 11-09-09, 06:57 AM

Closing lines are far from accurate often enough, simply because the books *do* give in to one-sided action on everything but the biggest markets like the NFL. It really depends on what you bet on.

**CaptainPrice** · 11-10-09, 09:34 PM

agree with bubblebobble
and 50/50 on closing lines accurate-er

**TGoat** · 11-11-09, 09:35 AM

About 30 years ago I got to know a bookie pretty well, and he told me that if you want to make money in sports you should make note of the opening line and compare it to the closing line and then fade the public.

This sounded to good to be true. If it were that easy...So then as now, not taking anybody's word for anything, I went to the library and got one year's worth of newspapers (on microfiche), loaded them into the machine and scrolled through a year's worth of NFL football results.

I made note of the opening line on Tuesday and the closing line on Saturday. Any line change of 1/2 point or more was considered a move.

The results were startling. 50% of the time the line move predicted the winner. And 50% of the time the line move predicted the loser.

**filter15** · 11-12-09, 01:01 AM

Tgoat do you have those results?
or raw data on file?
i would love to see them

**man3645** · 11-12-09, 03:29 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

About 30 years ago I got to know a bookie pretty well, and he told me that if you want to make money in sports you should make note of the opening line and compare it to the closing line and then fade the public.

This sounded to good to be true. If it were that easy...So then as now, not taking anybody's word for anything, I went to the library and got one year's worth of newspapers (on microfiche), loaded them into the machine and scrolled through a year's worth of NFL football results.

I made note of the opening line on Tuesday and the closing line on Saturday. Any line change of 1/2 point or more was considered a move.

The results were startling. 50% of the time the line move predicted the winner. And 50% of the time the line move predicted the loser.

**TGoat** · 11-12-09, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by filter15

Tgoat do you have those results?
or raw data on file?
i would love to see them

I did this in 1978~by hand. Once I saw that it didn't prove anything one way or the other I moved on. Actually, I partnered up with the bookie.

**Wrecktangle** · 11-14-09, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

About 30 years ago I got to know a bookie pretty well, and he told me that if you want to make money in sports you should make note of the opening line and compare it to the closing line and then fade the public.

This sounded to good to be true. If it were that easy...So then as now, not taking anybody's word for anything, I went to the library and got one year's worth of newspapers (on microfiche), loaded them into the machine and scrolled through a year's worth of NFL football results.

I made note of the opening line on Tuesday and the closing line on Saturday. Any line change of 1/2 point or more was considered a move.

The results were startling. 50% of the time the line move predicted the winner. And 50% of the time the line move predicted the loser.

Absolutely and provably NOT TRUE...the market is very, very good in all sports, but less so in small markets as there are fewer folks pushing the lines.

**the shadow** · 11-14-09, 05:18 PM

If the closing line is more accurate, then why would you wait for the line to move?
For instance justin7 is playing a closing line when he plays idaho today.(+28 to +32)
He's gonna bet this game 5 minutes before it closes.
So he's going against his own video.(BEAT THE OPENING LINE)
Each game is independent of each other.

**Thremp** · 11-15-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by the shadow

If the closing line is more accurate, then why would you wait for the line to move? For instance justin7 is playing a closing line when he plays idaho today.(+28 to +32) He's gonna bet this game 5 minutes before it closes. So he's going against his own video.(BEAT THE OPENING LINE) Each game is independent of each other.

He likely thinks the sport isn't efficient. Or that particular game isn't. Just because there is a general rule (Closers are more efficient than openers), it doesn't preclude the possibility of events that go contrary to this (RLM for example).