Bowl Game Handicapping

[BigdaddyQH]

It is time to start thinking about your Bowl Game handicapping. Rule #1. Throw out all of your handicapping rules. These games are decided on emotion more than anything else. Who want the game more. Need proof? Just ask Alabama or Utah. Ask them who wanted that game the most. Who prepared for that game and who did not? You can look at the seasons records both S/U and ATS. You can look at past bowl history. You can try to match up player personnel. What you probably can not do is figure out who cares about the game. Sure the N.C. game should not fall into that catagory, but what about the other 33 games?

Unless you are a very good handicapper, you may not find a great line, and even if you do and decide to wager early, you do not know who is going to get arrested, who is going to be suspended because of grades, or, again, who really wants to win. Then there is the problem of a team who will really want to win simply being outclasses. Florida State vs West Virginia could be a good example. You know tha the players for FSU are going to want to send the old man out in style, but can they physically beat West Virginia? What about all the other ACC teams who now must go to a leser Bwl game because of the Gator Bowl's greed. How will they react?

Intangables are the most important thing that go into a Bowl Game. Intangables are what you have to understand and figure out to make any type of wager. All the other information helps, but the intangables will make the difference more often than not.

[Peregrine Stoop]

LOL @ intangibles

rule #1: bet all 7+ point dogs

[LLXC]

Fade Big Ten in BCS (Rose or Championship).
Fade loser of SEC Championship game (assuming they aren't still somehow in the BCS championship game).

[LT Profits]

Fade Big Ten Favorites, Play On Pac-10 Underdogs.

[texhooper]

sec in the liberty bowl. my 2 cents.

[The General]

We see more conservative play in the later parts of games I think.

[roasthawg]

I hate bowl games... no home field makes it impossible to near impossible to handicap for me.

[BigdaddyQH]

For all the Big 10 faders, last year, even though they went 1-6 S/U, they went 3-4 ATS. As far as playing any dog of 7+, there were 9 games that fell into that catagory, and the favorites covered 5. As far as fading Big 10 favorites and playing Pac 10 dogs, can you find any? Next.

[Fishhead]

I love bowl season........very strong in the bowls

[20Four7]

For all the Big 10 faders, last year, even though they went 1-6 S/U, they went 3-4 ATS. As far as playing any dog of 7+, there were 9 games that fell into that catagory, and the favorites covered 5. As far as fading Big 10 favorites and playing Pac 10 dogs, can you find any? Next.

Your being very short sighted. Your looking at least years record of 1/2 dozen games. You need to look at the long term record and see what your approaching. It's like saying I've got 6 and 0 I can't lose.... sure you can and watch when it comes.

[Cougar Bait]

Who played a better out of conference schedule and how they played in those games should be a good indication as to how they might matchup in their bowl bid. How they played against teams with a similar style helps as well. Also if there are an abundant amount of seniors on one team as opposed to the other that may come into play. Good thread post BD.

[LT Profits]

As far as fading Big 10 favorites and playing Pac 10 dogs, can you find any? Next.

The Big Ten angle lost last year when Iowa crushed South Carolina, but that still makes Big Ten faves just 4-15 ATS since 2000.

The Pac 10 angle won its only play last year with Oregon over Oklahoma State, making Pac 10 dogs 14-4 ATS since 2000.

[Peregrine Stoop]

For all the Big 10 faders, last year, even though they went 1-6 S/U, they went 3-4 ATS. As far as playing any dog of 7+, there were 9 games that fell into that catagory, and the favorites covered 5. As far as fading Big 10 favorites and playing Pac 10 dogs, can you find any? Next.

LOL... How are 7+ point dogs in bowl games doing since 1994? since 2000? since 2005?
I print free money for you and you are too short-sighted to see it

[beefcake]

The last 2 seasons,Ive made some good coin just fading whoever the public likes on the ESPN bowl challenge,it sounds too simple and easy,but the 1% to 30 % picks vs the spread have been like 60-70 % ATS

[Jimbo42]

Fade Big Ten Favorites, Play On Pac-10 Underdogs.

Yes! Also, Favorites tend to win in pre-Jan1 games... Dogs Jan1 and later... general terms.

[blackbart]

i think you have , the above, reversed.

[20Four7]

i think you have , the above, reversed.

SHHHHHHHHHH don't educate him.......

[pats3peat]

SHHHHHHHHHH don't educate him.......

[Wrecktangle]

I guess the downsize to Fish getting into the tank is posters like bigdaddy think it's safe to wander in here too.

[BigdaddyQH]

i think you have , the above, reversed.

You are correct. The Dogs do much better normally than the favorites do early on.

[pats3peat]

i forgot this was a real trend, soudned like they were joking , now i remember once hearing about that, though didnt remember the order

[capri5421]

Bigdaddy, how you doin. Hope all's well. I havn,t seen you over at the other place, this forum is so much better. Can't believe college football regular season is over. Remember all those nites in the middle of the winter last gettin ready for the 09 season, now it's almost over, anyway good luck buddy. My Gators took some beatin in the SEC Champ game. GL

[ewrestling4c]

It seems that distance to games and such can have a lot to play into the games as well. Also, how the team was playing late in games and any injuries of people coming back.

[Nguyen]

do as u wish