Betting favorites on High Alternative line in NFL?

**RaisyDaisy** · 10-29-09, 06:53 AM

I would say stay away as if you like the team, just play it straight. You don't want to give the edge to the books more. These so called pleasers are no0no's IMO.

**Arilou** · 10-29-09, 07:10 AM

If all you're using to evaluate the bet is the half-point calculator, you have to ask: Which do you trust, the values in the half-point calculator or the way the line is set?

**Ominous** · 10-29-09, 09:09 AM

That was what I was asking you, My experience is that bookies are really weak at setting Alt-spreads. I mean just look at the wong-bets possible which yield good profit.

I was wondering if there is more really important information to take into account that just plain value of the pushfrequencies of the points bought.

People bet wong-teasers blindly on the pointbuy effect profitably so then it would seem natural to assume that this could be profitable to bet blindely on pointbuy(sell) effect as well, however maybe there is something I have missed.

**MrX** · 10-29-09, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by Ominous

My problem is that I havent done so well so far so I am beginning to question my approach. Im 1-10 or somthing so I guess it could be a bad run but Id like some input.

Being 1-10 at +350 wagers give you very little information and, therefore, very little reason to be discouraged if you're confident in your method.

Originally posted by Ominous

Lately I have been thinking that maybe you have to cap the enemy in the actual game. For instance, STL, TB and KC have all been known to suffer blowouts while decent teams such as Arizona hasnt. Do you think this sort of past performance is useful to consider when making these bets?(in addition to considering the actual ATS line of the game)

I don't know the answer to this, but I can tell you how to find out. Create a database of games, % of blowout wins vs spread (last 30 or so games), % of blowout losses vs spread (last 30 or so games), and current-game result vs spread. Perform a regression analysis and see if past blowouts vs spread are predictive or not.

My guess that past blowout success/failure is slightly predictive, but not enough to have a huge impact on the wagers you're talking about. That's just a wild-ass guess, though, I don't really study NFL much at all.

**Peeig** · 10-29-09, 10:26 AM

It is probably valuable in certain situations, but you would need a database to isolate those spots........if you put the work in, I am sure you would find some bets

**dwaechte** · 10-29-09, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Ominous

That was what I was asking you, My experience is that bookies are really weak at setting Alt-spreads. I mean just look at the wong-bets possible which yield good profit.

I was wondering if there is more really important information to take into account that just plain value of the pushfrequencies of the points bought.

People bet wong-teasers blindly on the pointbuy effect profitably so then it would seem natural to assume that this could be profitable to bet blindely on pointbuy(sell) effect as well, however maybe there is something I have missed.

Wongs are blindly profitable because there are a lot of customers who make offering standard teaser prices profitable despite guys playing wongs. There's no valid comparison to point buying/selling there.

Derivatives like this can be profitable but, as others have said, you need to do a lot more work than blindly taking the favourite.

**rkelly110** · 10-29-09, 11:33 AM

Check out this web site it could give you more insight into what you're looking for.
All kinds of Parlays, If bets and teaser info.

http://sportflury.goldensys.**************.net

**Arilou** · 10-30-09, 09:23 AM

In general, the more money is bet on a line (or sport) the more accurate the line; an alternate line will on average be less accurate. However, the vig also tends to be somewhat higher.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 10-30-09, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by Ominous

Is anyone taking high alternative lines in NFL?

Often you can get -14,5 @ about +350 on a team around -7 ATS. I have tried to play a few of these as they show value according to the half point calculator (and mathematically half point calculator should UNDERestimate value of this bet, as it overestimates the importance of points far away from the actual line)

My problem is that I havent done so well so far so I am beginning to question my approach. Im 1-10 or somthing so I guess it could be a bad run but Id like some input.

Lately I have been thinking that maybe you have to cap the enemy in the actual game. For instance, STL, TB and KC have all been known to suffer blowouts while decent teams such as Arizona hasnt. Do you think this sort of past performance is useful to consider when making these bets?(in addition to considering the actual ATS line of the game)

Another thing to consider is to avoid betting heavy public teams I guess... But it would seem like public has rolled this season. But if I have like 5% value to halfpoint calc does it really matter that the team I bet has 75% public consensus?

Do you think these bets have EV+ if they show value according to halfpoint calc?

half point calculator should not be used when betting a line a few points or more away from the regular line. I believe there is a warning on the calculator page here about that.
minor nit-Arizona has suffered a blowout this year; Colts on a Sunday night game.

I would say that the alt spread lines on books like pinnacle, 5dimes, thegreek, etc. are fairly efficient markets. There are quite a few guys with very good databases applying their knowledge well to hammer those lines into place. The ratio of sharp better to square better in that market is going to be higher than the regular spread.

However, as with everything else, you can find good value with lesser books.

**bleedblue** · 10-30-09, 05:01 PM

Ominous,

There is some good advice and some bad advice in here. I'm not gonna bother picking apart everything that has been said, but -14.5 +350 is blindly profitable for a 7 point favorite. It's really not even close. PM me if you'd like to discuss this more

**Peep** · 10-30-09, 07:02 PM

I have 620 games in an NFL database with Home favorites lined at -6.5, -7 or -7.5

171 times these HF won by more than 14.

So I would agree with bleedblue.

**RickySteve** · 10-30-09, 07:26 PM

+350 is off the charts great. I think OP is mistaken.

**poker_dummy101** · 11-02-09, 01:16 PM

i give up, nvm my post

**Arilou** · 11-02-09, 04:34 PM

As the others have said, yes, -14.5 +350 on a line that's fair value -7 +100 is rather absurd (and if you could get it, you could even potentially set up an arbitrage situation using awful awful never-do-this-ever teasers).

Alternate line value does exist, even at major books, but nothing that obvious.