O.k., this is the third time I've seen this in the last week. The La Tech/Hawaii game had a huge line movement the Michigan/Michigan State game had a huge line movement and the La Tech/Nevada line moved up substantially. They are 3-0. Does anyone know what the yearly w/l is for large movements? I went big on Nevada simply because of the upward line. It felt like it was predetermined. I know anything could happen but c'mon. I was on Michigan last week and the only way State was going to cover was if Michigan threw an interception and State ran it in for a touchdown even though they were only playing for a field goal. Just curious if anyone has looked at the record when there is a substantial movement.
-
-
I've been tracking this for the past few weeks and it hits fairly often. Working on the % now ill come back with the %. Just for example i tracked 5 games this week were a home fave where the line moved up by more then 2 points. Was 4-1 ( that the home Fave won & covered ) only loss being Wake Forest. Troy ( open -4 GTL -7 ), Nevada ( OL -7, GTL -10.5 ) Cent Mich ( OL -21 GTL -23 ), Ohio St ( OL -14.5 GTL -14.5 *** was -16.5 up to 3ish saturday ), Wake Forest ( OL -10 GTL -12.5 ).
that Ohio State game was a vert very late movement abck down to the opening spread but only 35% of th epublic was on Ohio State.Comment -
also you can throw Virginia in if you want OL -6 GTL -7 but everyone was on Indiana VA only had 30% of the publicComment -
Actually it is impossible to answer this without knowing WHEN bet was placed. If you got bet down when line moved, say, one point off of opener, of course record will be better than record vs. closing line.Comment -
As LT said... If you beat the closing line, you will be a long term winner (granted you have good money management)Comment -
Once again another Tuesday night game that a select few knew more about than everyone else. The line moves from -1 to +3 on Arkansas State. I don't think this is coincidence 5 times in a row now.Comment -
Here are the last 5 I've tracked:
Wake Forest vs. NC State - Started NC State -1 ended WF -2.5/-3 WF wins 30-24
LA Tech vs. Hawaii - Started La Tech -3 ended LA tech -6/-6.5 La Tech Wins 27-6
Michigan vs Michigan State - Started Michigan -1 ended State -3.5/-4 State Wins 26-20
Nevada vs. LA Tech - Started Nevada -7 ended Nevada -11.5/-12 Nevada Wins 37-14
Ark State vs. ULM - Started Ark State -1 ended ULM -2.5/-3 ULM Wins 16-10
All 5 of these had LARGE line movements and all 5 covered even after the movement. I understand that the value diminishes as the line increases and if you don't catch it early there is a diminished return but there looks to be a strong correlation on the large movements. I'm not a math whiz and I'm sure there are a lot of people on this site that are smarter than I am but I never see any strong writeups in these situations. If nothing else, these lines scream stay away if you were thinking the opposite side. What am I missing here?Comment -
I would be very wary of calling -1 to less than -3 a "large" movement.Comment -
They were both -1 for the other team to -3 for the team that was the underdog. So +4 movement with the underdogs flip-flopping.Comment -
Watch line movements on NCAA totals, especially when they move from high 50s or 60s to down, good value hereComment -
What is a good site to look at line movements?Comment -
-
Use Pinnacle's dynamic line setting to watch the line change in real-time.Comment -
anywhere you can find the consensus history too for archives?Comment
