When the line moves against you

**pimike** · 09-10-09, 12:06 AM

By your own admission it takes you several weeks in before you start nailing these, tells me just that wait it out.

**20Four7** · 09-10-09, 12:19 AM

That's what I"m thinking Pimike. I may still put a small wager on it. I don't want to get into a solid hole before the season starts. Mind you if it comes through I"m good to go for the year. I may just take the rising points and watch the game.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-10-09, 12:26 AM

If I'm understanding this right you found a dog that you beleive has a 60% chance of winning outright on the moneyline. Now your getting a better price and you want to pass?

In my years in the buisness I have noticed their is nothing more overrated then a line move. In the long run things even out. The only thing you should be worrying about is beating the closing line. If you do that consistently you will have a much easier time beating the system. Moneyline moves aren't like point spread moves. If your point spread moves you have to recalculate to see if it is profitable that they cover the new number. With moneylines the objective remains the same, win the game. It doesn't matter if it jumps to +500 if you think they have a 60% to win the game at +140 the odds remain the same.

Maybe I am not understanding what your asking but if you trust yourself and you are seeing that this team wins 60% of the time it would be a terrible idea to pass because the line rose. If the line sinks you may have to re-think but line rising is good for you.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-10-09, 12:45 AM

See http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html

You really should re-evaluate your handicapping (at least on this game) as the market is certainly not going to offer you an 80% edge. You should be wagering 40% of your bankroll on this game at full Kelly (if your handicapping was actually correct). When the market moves against your number, there's a problem.

**20Four7** · 09-10-09, 12:49 AM

Exactly my point Monkey. I use 1/2 kelly and I think I came up with 21% of my roll. I've read that thread many times and I believe it to be true. I mostly brought this up to highlight what you should do when the line DOES move against ya.

**MrX** · 09-10-09, 01:01 AM

With a discrepancy this big, you should be able to figure out some reasons for your inaccuracy. If you can't, I'd be concerned about your methods, at least in early season games.

**20Four7** · 09-10-09, 01:26 AM

Mr. X,

Mostly I use last years stats. I do re evaluate based on lineup changes etc. I don't think I take that fully into account. Once this years stats mean something (for me 4 games in ) I know my methodology is sound. Just trying to provoke discussion at this wee hour of the morning.

BTW nice seeing you again at the bash and take care.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-10-09, 03:21 PM

Line moves often reflect hidden information. You could fairly argue that they should be ignored relative to your initial appraisal.

For example, if you liked an under bet for matchup reasons, but without regard to weather, if the total then dropped to reflect weather, you can still make your wager. You would not have lost value. Same thing in reverse. If the line increases for unknown reasons, you should assume those reasons are valid, and that you'll need the extra price to make up for your decreased chance of winning.

But I understand this is hard to grasp.

**Dark Horse** · 09-10-09, 04:25 PM

For NFL? Every line movement, except PHI (a public favorite) from +1 to -1 and counting, has been towards the favorite. Seven games involved key numbers (3 and 7). I doubt that reflects hidden information. A surprisingly square kickoff to the season, if you ask me.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-10-09, 10:19 PM

Sometimes a line move happens because a QB gets injured. Sometimes because a storm front moves in. Sometimes because bettors bandwagon on hot cappers. Sometimes just because they tend to like faves.

But the point remains that sometimes a line move does NOT change a bet's value.

If one moment your getting +7 and like the dog, and then you're getting +10, you shouldn't necessarily like the dog more. Not less, either, but not necessarily more. It depends on the reason for the line change.

And the reverse of that is true. Suppose you like a total under 45, for non-weather reasons. Then a storm front blows in and the total drops to 42 BECAUSE of the weather change. That doesn't mean you've lost three points of value. Unless you have reason to value the weather change differently than the public, it should be irrelevant to you. You can pretty much assume that the point change, being market based, is accurate (unless I have reason to think otherwise, I always assume the market is fairly accurate). You'll have lost 3 points on the line, but gained 3 points from the weather change, so the weather change--and it's resulting line change--are neutral to you.