Combining Boosts

**dogman** · 03-07-24, 12:48 PM

NBA boost is 9+ three's-- line is boosted to +150 --- Player one is 3-160 over, Player 2 is 3-115 over, and Player 3 is 3 -145 over. Does anyone know the math to find the true odds of the three players combining for 9 three's.

**Optional** · 03-07-24, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by dogman

Will two players combine for 50 pts. in a NBA game at +100. Can anyone help me with the math on this.

What I have been doing is to take the line for each player to score 25 points. I would then convert to percentages. At -135 for one player and -260 for the other. That comes out to 57.45% and 72.22%.

What would be the next move to see it it's plus EV?

Thank you

.5745*.7222 = 0.4156261

which is +141

Or I am missing something?

I guess you need to calculate in the advantage of one player going well over covering the other going under 25 to be accurate. But I can't think of a way to approach that quickly.

**dogman** · 03-07-24, 02:39 PM

Thank you for replying Optional,

That math works for other boost such as will Tatum score 25+ points and Curry score 25+ points but for combining boost bets, parlaying the bets will give you much higher odds than the boost.

I would assume that the -135 and the -260 would give you an answer but not sure.

**J. v. Neumann** · 03-23-24, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Optional

.5745*.7222 = 0.4156261

which is +141
Or I am missing something?

I don't think players' scores are statistically independent (only in such a case probabilities can be multiplied). Furthermore, lines should not be taken as probability inputs in a model, as they do not represent probabilities (it's just a crowd wisdom effect that most often they are pretty close to the probabilities). A sharp bookie's closing line might be taken as probability, but with removed margin (i.e. probability decreases, as bookies always suggest overall probability > 1 due to the margin).