I'm creating this thread to document a trend I've been following with consistent success for at least the last 5 years.
There aren't that many plays in a season, but the historical hit rate is around 65%.
Here's the premise of the trend:
Our bodies have a natural bio rhythm that peaks around 5:00 PM. This means if you have to do something that requires you to really physically push yourself, the results will be best around this time. A NFL game is largely a contest of who can physically dominate who. Prime time games start at 5:20 PM for teams who play on the west coast. Players who live on the west coast (during the season at least) are acclimated to that time zone...prime time games are starting just as their body's are just reaching the peak physical of their day. Players who live in the central time zone or eastern time zone are now 2-3 hours beyond their body's daily peak. Result? Players from the west coast are going to have a slight physical edge over opponents who are from the central or eastern time zones. This means they should generally be able to outperform the odds makers.
So any time we have a prime time game (7:20 central time for me) where a west coast team plays a team from the central or eastern time zones, you take the west coast team ats. This is regardless of location.
*Leave out the few mountain time zone teams because they're too close in time to the west coast team, so the advantage wasn't enough when I back tested.
**I also leave out Arizona. Something about how sometimes they're on mountain time and sometimes on west coast time must screw things up, but they also weren't worth including when I back tested
There aren't that many plays in a season, but the historical hit rate is around 65%.
Here's the premise of the trend:
Our bodies have a natural bio rhythm that peaks around 5:00 PM. This means if you have to do something that requires you to really physically push yourself, the results will be best around this time. A NFL game is largely a contest of who can physically dominate who. Prime time games start at 5:20 PM for teams who play on the west coast. Players who live on the west coast (during the season at least) are acclimated to that time zone...prime time games are starting just as their body's are just reaching the peak physical of their day. Players who live in the central time zone or eastern time zone are now 2-3 hours beyond their body's daily peak. Result? Players from the west coast are going to have a slight physical edge over opponents who are from the central or eastern time zones. This means they should generally be able to outperform the odds makers.
So any time we have a prime time game (7:20 central time for me) where a west coast team plays a team from the central or eastern time zones, you take the west coast team ats. This is regardless of location.
*Leave out the few mountain time zone teams because they're too close in time to the west coast team, so the advantage wasn't enough when I back tested.
**I also leave out Arizona. Something about how sometimes they're on mountain time and sometimes on west coast time must screw things up, but they also weren't worth including when I back tested