Possible MLB System-Need Feedback

[cabrerjc]

Hey Everyone,
I'm sort of new to sports wagering and I'm starting to learn a lot as I read through forum posts. I have been using JM's system and it seems to work pretty well (I know a lot of people are going to hate), but it got me thinking about a similar system. Here are my thoughts and I would love to have input from the wagering community.

MLB Home Chase System:

My basic idea is to do an A/B/C chase system with the following parameters:

1. Moneyline wager on the hometeam to win 1 game in a 3 game series.
2. Hometeam must have at least a .024 higher RPI than the opponent.
3. As soon as there is a win that series is over etc.

I know the lines aren't going to be very high, but I backtested it for the past week or so and it went 14-0.
Thoughts?

P.S. My money management system is to start with 5% of the bankroll on each game, and when my bankroll increases by 15% then I increase my bet by 10%. That way my bankroll and bets increase, but the % I bet decreases. That way if I do lose a C bet, then it will be a small percentage of the total bankroll.

P.P.S. Under this system the plays for today are Yankees, Colorado, and Giants.

[egr99]

What was Atlanta RPI before CIN swept them this weekend? Currently ATL .501 and CIN .482 so diff of .019, did it qualify prior to this series? Im curious myself... but don't have any archived RPI.

egr99

[Mijos]

martingale is not for me

[2TURN70]

Learn the basics for HCP
Stay away from systems, streaky, end up losing

[dimon]

Yeah, I am sure that ATL was higher than .024...and the sweep...I actually lost yesterday on that game betting that ATL will not get swept at home...all these chase systems only will work with .5-1% net winnings each series, and stay flat till the end of the season...loss will give you about 15-17% loss, but winnings will take over but you need to stay very discipline

[cabrerjc]

I don't know what ATL's RPI was either. I really just came up with the thought as I was driving home last night. Obviously the RPI can be tweaked to make it better, and no system is fullproof. I'm going to keep testing it till the end of the season, because I feel it can keep me in the positive in the long run (and isn't that what we're all going for?)

[MrX]

It's a great system if:

- You know home teams with a .024 RPI advantage to be around +5% E.V. in game 1s of three-game series.

- You know home teams with a .024 RPI advantage to be around +10% E.V. in game 2s after losing game 1.

- You know home teams with a .024 RPI advantage to be around +20% E.V. in game 3s after losing games 1 and 2.

It's actually worse than that, since you'll usually be betting moneyline favorites.

Otherwise, expect a nice stretch of wins followed by some serious ugliness.

[cabrerjc]

Okay, please forgive me because I am just learning terms and stuff, but what does E.V mean with regards to this system? I figure with my money management I can make it so a loss isn't really devastating. Am I over simplifing this?
P.S. It seems as if the 3 games today are winners. So aside from the ATL series we don't know about it will be 17-0 in the past 2 weeks.

[MrX]

EV means expected value.

How do you figure that your money management is going to make a loss not devastating? Your system, as stated, is going to have you betting well over half of your bankroll on a C-bet in the case a -150 favorite losing its first two games (home teams with RPI advantages are going to largely be moneyline favorites). Sounds pretty devastating to me.

[cabrerjc]

That's where the money management comes into play. Let's say I started with $100 and I bet $5 or 5% on each game/series. When my bankroll gets to $115 I raise my bet 10%. I continue this fashion indefinitely. So as your bankroll increases the percentage bet decreases. For instance after a bit you will be betting 4.3% of the bankroll and not 5%. It will continually become a smaller and smaller percentage. Make sense?

Also you can play it safe and make the C bet only to win back A and B, so its not too tremendously high.

[Nevada]

Or bet the run line (-1.5) to get underdog odds and instead of "risking" 5% of your bankroll, bet "to win" 5% of your bankroll, this will cost alot less if you do have a loss, and a win will be worth more.
Just a thought for you

[G's pks]

Okay, please forgive me because I am just learning terms and stuff, but what does E.V mean with regards to this system? I figure with my money management I can make it so a loss isn't really devastating. Am I over simplifing this?
P.S. It seems as if the 3 games today are winners. So aside from the ATL series we don't know about it will be 17-0 in the past 2 weeks.

Go back look over the stats...several home teams have been swept in the last two weeks! Not sure of rpi... but believe me you are not the first to think of this system and yes you are over simplifying it! Try it and
just in the last 2-3 weeks...TB(just swept by det!), Atl, Balt, Mil, KC all swept at home. If you are doubling up...each series would be worth 7 losses... So you would have 35 losses right there...

Ok also remember... if Atl was one of your plays that alone was worth 7 losses... and if you are saying your loss amount is less..then your 17 win amount would also be less... Maybe take the home teams and even the road teams apply a large enough group of filters and limit teams you bet...

[cabrerjc]

I don't think any of those games fit the RPI criteria. So no losses.

[G's pks]

I don't think any of those games fit the RPI criteria. So no losses.

I sent you a pm...

Within each series there are losses...juice and figuring out a money management system that will allow a chase over a long period of time believe me!

So Morrison can say he is 10-0...but really game wise be 10-7...and if not doubling up...juice makes it more like 10-10... I like the Jm systems but there are losses within the series...