CLV/ROI Relationship

[dbc]

What is the relationship with CLV and ROI?

If you make a bet and beat the closing line by 2% does that mean that your expected ROI not that bet is 2%? Long term will CLV equal ROI or does 1% of CLV equate to more than 1% in ROI?

Thanks!

[d2bets]

When you say beat the closing line by 2%, I assume you are judging against the devigged closing line? If you have an accurate devigged closing line, then yes the ROI should be similar to CLV.

[J. v. Neumann]

If you make a bet and beat the closing line by 2% does that mean that your expected ROI not that bet is 2%?

Regarding decimal odds, the answer is no.

It would hold under the assumption that the closing line gives the real outcome probabilities (1), but only if there was no bookmakers margin (2). Regarding (1), that can for example be assumed for soccer at Pinnacle pretty well (don't know how sharp the closing lines are for US sports) but of course we can't assume (2).

Example: Line for an NBA game closes at 1.9 for both teams (-111), so probabilities are 50-50, payout is 95% (if the oddscompiler did a perfect job anticipating action, bookie keeps 5% whatever the outcome of the game is). Given the situation again and again, you repeatedly bet 100$ on a team at 1.94 (beating the closing line by ~2 %), in the long term you will receive 100 * 1.94 * .5 = 97$ per bet, losing money (edit: 1.94 instead of 1.9).

In order to overcome the bookie's margin and have an ROI of 2%, you have to beat the closing line by 1.02 * (1/payout) = 1.02 * 1/.95 (in this case 1,074 or +7,4%), times 1.9 gives 2.04 (104). In the long term that gives 100 * 2.04 *.5 = 102$ (2% ROI).

Edit: as d2bets says, if the closing line is already devigged, then assumption (2) in my introduction holds (as well as your assumption).