Best way to convert spread to ML to determine closing line value?

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  • chilidog
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-05-09
    • 10305

    #1
    Best way to convert spread to ML to determine closing line value?
    I initially started using the 1/2 pt calculator to determine this, but it's a PITA to do this all the time. With everything else I have automated in my spreadsheet, I wanted to do this the same, so I started brainstorming different ways. I also don't know how current the 1/2 pt calculator is kept up to date with fresh data on push probabilities.

    One option is to record the ML price of the spread bet I make and get probability % based on that, then determine CLV based on closing ML.

    Another option is that I scraped all the closing lines for all the main US sports since 2019 and have them in a table in a separate sheet of my spreadsheet. If I grabbed the average ML value for, for example, every time the spread was -7 -105 in the NFL, would that be close enough to determine CLV?
  • solring
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-04-09
    • 170

    #2
    Originally posted by chilidog
    I also don't know how current the 1/2 pt calculator is kept up to date with fresh data on push probabilities.
    From what I understand, it hasn't changed in 5+ years...
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    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 61206

      #3
      Originally posted by chilidog
      Another option is that I scraped all the closing lines for all the main US sports since 2019 and have them in a table in a separate sheet of my spreadsheet. If I grabbed the average ML value for, for example, every time the spread was -7 -105 in the NFL, would that be close enough to determine CLV?
      That's exactly how my simplistic brain would deal with it.

      Have you compared that to what the ½ point calculator reports?
      .
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