Measuring EV in correlated baseball runline parlays

[gamble4heisman]

playing vanilla numbers and being allowed to parlay visitor runline (-1.5) with the over, what do you think the EV is of this playing this blind? Is it positive enough EV to play blind on every game?

[Igetp2s]

I would say it is definitely more valuable on totals of 7.5 and 9.5, not nearly as much (if not at all) on 8.5

[George7904]

Anyone have the answer to this? My local will take these. I just wish that I had known this earlier. Should I blindly bet them on totals lower than 7.5? My gut is telling me the answer is hell yes.

[IrishTim]

Not as great as you would think. Look at a historical database for more information.

[Toples]

total doesnt matter
you can bet disregarding the total, and you will get 6.1 % ROI on total
but generally you lose around 3% on run line
all in all should be profitable if you're getting at lease -110 line on both totals and RL

[Data]

playing vanilla numbers and being allowed to parlay visitor runline (-1.5) with the over, what do you think the EV is of this playing this blind? Is it positive enough EV to play blind on every game?

These plays are -EV while playing vs 20-cent lines. There is a very small edge with totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 and any total above 11.5 while playing vs 10-cent lines.

[mjc257]

total doesnt matter

The total absolutely does matter and 7.5 and 9.5 are the numbers you should focus on when betting these.

[A's Fan]

would playing texas rangers -1.5 and over 5.5 be +ev here?

[Peregrine Stoop]

would playing texas rangers -1.5 and over 5.5 be +ev here?

yes, it would've been a nice one

not all good plans work out

[RickySteve]

.

[mister bee]

These plays are -EV while playing vs 20-cent lines. There is a very small edge with totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 and any total above 11.5 while playing vs 10-cent lines.

totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5. why these totals?

[horsiehung]

what's the best way to learn about 'EV' stuff?
i hope its ok to ask a beginner question like that here..
I'M just so damn sick of payi0ng my bookie every week!!!!

[Data]

totals of 7.5, 9.5, 11.5. why these totals?

The home team winning by one is the most frequent MOV. These totals correspond to the home team winning by one (4-3, 5-4, 6-5) while the game goes under.

[mister bee]

The home team winning by one is the most frequent MOV. These totals correspond to the home team winning by one (4-3, 5-4, 6-5) while the game goes under.

thanks data. i gotta believe "MOV" is margin of victory, although i've never actually seen it written liked that.

[Data]

thanks data. i gotta believe "MOV" is margin of victory, although i've never actually seen it written liked that.

You got it. MOV is a fairly common abbreviation we use here.