Is this a +EV side?

[The Bishop]

Tonight at halftime I jumped on

TEN 2H +0.5 -110
DAL 2H ML -110

Is this profitable longterm and how close is it?

I figure the push percentage in the second half would be over 9.1%, especially in NFLX, but I don't have the numbers to back it up. It seems like it would be nearly impossible to come up with a perfect number because of the differing game line and halftime score for each game, but does anyone have an approximation?

[Reload]

Welcome, Bishop!

I would say there has to be at least a small +EV there. Like you, I do not have the numbers to back it up but at full vig on both sides it would only have to happen 1 out of 20 times to break even. I would think the chances are greater than that.

Good luck this season!

[The Bishop]

Obviously that safety assures that this won't hit, but the best I can do is win and push (it's a side AKA half middle), so breakeven should be 1/11.

[Pancho sanza]

depends on the score at halftime.

[Justin7]

When you're playing this middle, you can solve mathematically what you need to win. Your bet is basically: Will the second half be tied, risking 100 to win 1000.

At 9%, this is marginal.

[The Bishop]

When you're playing this middle, you can solve mathematically what you need to win. Your bet is basically: Will the second half be tied, risking 100 to win 1000.

At 9%, this is marginal.

Right, that's where I got the 9.1% in my OP. Obviously wouldn't do this in a game tied at half or anything that dumb, but I figured at 14-10 it was worth a shot. Apparently not as +EV as I thought. Thanks.

[The Bishop]

As a side note, how long does this "your post will not appear until approved by a mod" business last?