What is 1/2 run worth on the run-line?

[Rio DiNero]

How do I figure out the value of a 1/2 run?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Push frequencies at specified totals.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Otherwise, you can use your own scoring distribution from a model...

[LT Profits]

Or just use Ganchrow's half=point calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

Not all half-runs are created equal.

[Rio DiNero]

Or just use Ganchrow's half=point calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

Not all half-runs are created equal.

Nice tool, but I'm looking for the value of 1/2 run in regards to the run-line ex;-1.5,+1.5,-2,+2,-2.5,+2.5

[LT Profits]

Got ya, that might be a nice addition to Ganch's tool.

[durito]

Pinnacle drop-downs are your friend.

.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Get me further labeled pro-gambler and limits cut/banned

OR PROVE THAT I'M A SHODDY STATISTICIAN.

I'D SAY

[RUNLINE VALUE - MONEY LINE VALUE]

OR BASICALLY THE DIFFERENCE IN VALUE BETWEEN THE MARLINS -1 AND THE MARLINS -1.5.

TAKEN AS AN ABSOLUTE VALUE, CUZ YOU MIGHT GET A POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE ANSER, BUT IT WOULD STILL BE THE DIFFERENCE.

CALCULATED MORE SPECIFICIALLY ON THE G-CUBE BET VALUE SYSTEM (LICENCED TO DAVID GEFFEN CORPORATION FURTHER BOUGHT OUT BY JAPONESE MEGA-CONGLOMERATE PANASONIC):

{(PROBABILITY MONEY LINE WINS, I.E. THE ROJOS WIN BY 1 OR MORE)(AMOUNT BET)(MONEY LINE IN DECIMALS) - (PROBABILITY RUN LINE HITS(AMOUNT BET)(RUNLINE VALUE IN DECIMALS)}

SO YOU'D GET IF YOU ESTIMATE THE SARAPEROS WIN BY 1 OR MORE 33% OF THE TIME AND YOU BET $56 AND THE MONEY LINE ODDS OR -130 OR 1.8.

+ THE SARAPEROS RUN LINE HITS 22% OF THE TIME, IE THEY WIN BY 2 OR MORE 22% OF THE TIME (ACCORDING TO YOU'RE STATS OR YOUR ESTIMATIONS OR A COMBINATIONOF BOTH), AND YOU BET $56 AND GOT ODDS OF +130 OR 2.3

THE VALUE OF A HALF A RUN WOULD BE :

{.33x$56x1.8 - .22x$56x2.3} divided by 2,

because the money line of a bet actually is Saraperos -.5
cuz a money line bet can never push. If the win by 1, you win, and if the event is canceled, you push. But Runline bets would push to if its rained out or something, so we wont consider this.

So solving, we get $33.26-28.34) or a difference of like five bucks in this case, with the money line being more valueable. Divided by 2, the value is $2.5 on a $56 bet, so not much difference is your answer.

There are other ways to solve this algebraic equation.

You can subtract {Team -1 Value - Team -1.5 Value} and find your answer right there. Or the value of [Team A minus 1 - Team A runline}

or you can go [padres -2's value - padres -1.5's value]. Cuz some casinos have Runlines of -2 or +2 , in special run lines, or parlay cards.

If you want you could look at all the differences and take the average of them to find the exact value or a more exact estimated value of half a run.

it be like [[(Reds+3 value)-(Reds +2.5 value)]+[(Reds+2.5 value)-(Reds+2 value)]+[(Reds+N value) - (Reds + N-.5 value)]....+ [(Reds -2.5 value)-(Reds -3 value)]]
divided by N

So you take all the different special run line values, compare them to the next run line value N number of times, and divide it by N, so you find a more exact Value of that .5 Runs.

And you could throw in the difference of Reds+3 value and Reds -3 value and divide it by 12, then add that to all the different differences in value between the two lines you compared and divide it by the total number of lines you compared.

If never seen a +4 or a -4 on a baseball game, so your range would be from -3 down to +3. In half run increments, that is 12 increments, including the Reds +0 or a rained out game/push/Government enginered terrorist attack/whatever

Which would give you 12 +11 +10! total increments. Or 78 different values all divided accordingly, added up and then divided by 78. OR:

[[(reds+3 % probablity of occuring x r+3 run line in decimalsx Amount Bet) - (reds +2.5 %r+2.5A..r-3%r-3rlA)/12.. .5)+ (reds +2.5...-2.5 % x reds +2.5 rl... reds -2.5 rl x AB)- (reds +2..reds-3 % x reds +2 rl... reds-3 rl x AB/11.5.. .5 )] divided by 78.

That would give you the most accurate value for half a run, cuz you are looking at every possible difference in every possible runline available from your casinos. Adding them all up and dividing, so you'll get an accurate average in dollars.

So you books stop banning me for cheating, just admit that I'm too smart, and tell me to split.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

undercover nat'l guard fashion victim kids, you dont need to sell drugs when you can just print money at the book!

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

I forget about the push.

For each value, calculate (A x %push + A x %Rl hits x Rl)

Lets say that's Value of reds +3.

Take (Value Reds+3 - Each Value Reds +2.5...Reds-3) + (Value Reds +2.5...Value Reds -2.5 - Each Value Reds +2...Reds-3) / 78.

or
[ValueReds + n - Reds + (n+.5...n+6)]/(12.. .5) + [V N+.5..V n +5- V N+1..B+6]/(12- (.5n)) / 78 = The Value of a Half Run.

Make sure you gret the absolue value in each difference, cuz it might be positive or negative. There should be 78 values for the .5 difference, just divide by 78 for your best answer.

The only hard part is estimating the probability that each event will occur.

You have to plug in how often you think the Reds are going to lose by 4 or more. How often do you think the Reds will lose by exactly 3... How often willthe Reds win by 1,....How often or what is the predicted probability the reds will win by 3 , more than 3? etc.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

But its summer, so I don't feel like explaiing math. Basically, Money Line is usually the best way to go. Runlines are good in low profile games. Texas Rangers, Dodgers last year. Reds. Cardinals. When the oddsmakers and the public are sleeping, grab those run lines. I don't know, some people can predict that better, I like the money line usually. That B in the equation should by V.