big bucks are in trading

[profits hunter]

with that i mean betting in play
and backing each outcome when odds are high

for this kind of betting suitable re sports with only two outcomes i.e. basketball,ping pong,volleyball
where ups and downs re in the score are common

never tried it to be honest
but everytime i lose a bet with an amazing turn over i wish i had

not sure if there is software for that to display opportunities
but for sure you gonna need two bookmakers
not sure what applies at the bet exchnge markets

[veriableodds]

I think what you are referencing to is trading as in you buy a line @ +money pre game, and trade the other side for +money. Very possible in sports when leads change 5-10x per game. Live trading requires so much dedication and time

[profits hunter]

bump for discussion

[KVB]

I think what you are referencing to is trading as in you buy a line @ +money pre game, and trade the other side for +money. Very possible in sports when leads change 5-10x per game. Live trading requires so much dedication and time

Yes, it takes a lot of screen watching to eek out some profit, that's for sure.

Also, live lines have a high vig so if you are doing it often you really need to have a plan.

Access to historical live lines, or better yet screen watching and taking your own notes going forward can be very helpful.

But, again, like veriable says, dedication and time.

[Waterstpub87]

I don't know if I believe that.

Yes, the lines are going to maybe be softer, because they are making it on the fly. And theoretically, if it is some trader sitting there punching in prices, yea, that makes sense.

An alternative reality is that they have a computer that crunches the numbers and spits out a real time line. This line being more accurate than you think it would be. They then charge you -120 a side, 4 times the juice that you get at -105 pregame. Additionally, anytime they dont like the line later, they cancel your bet and say bad line. Maybe it can work, if you arb the line with another book. But good luck getting that Arb with that level of juice, as well hoping that you can close the other one when you bet the first.

Eventually, if you start to win live betting, without betting anything else, they close your account. How much can you even get down on a live line?

It going to be operationally harder than you think it is. Especially when you start to actually win.

[KVB]

Pretty much waterst.

That's about how it goes.

Really have to spread thin and smart and the pay because of the vig takes the meat out of the arbs outside of very rare instances that you can only find if you are staring at the screens constantly.

Tough racket for pennies with the exception of some spot type betting. Just not enough in it and not enough instances to run a campaign.

[Waterstpub87]

I think what you are referencing to is trading as in you buy a line @ +money pre game, and trade the other side for +money. Very possible in sports when leads change 5-10x per game. Live trading requires so much dedication and time

This is another situation that I think people don't think clearly about, not you variableodds, but the idea in general.

If you bet an underdog before the game, and they are winning enough to be a live favorite, you are diluting your profit by scalping.

Justin7 made a good video in this concept with beating the closing line, maybe about 10 years ago. If you youtube btcl, you might find it.

Consider that you always bet 150 dogs. If you always buy back when you are winning, you minimize your wins, but your losses remain the same, when your underdog is losing the entire time.

[veriableodds]

yeah i do not recomend this at all, it is a very weatherd pro style looking for side scalps. Advanced technique for sure

[dxp]

i was going to ask a similar question not too long ago about this. i noticed pre-game live wagering with esports, for example, where the favorite is like -220 and the underdog +175. so, lets say you dump $200 on the underdog. match starts, and the dog is winning 7-2 in first couple of minutes. line on the favorite suddenly becomes +125. dump $200 on him.. and now you're making at least $50 plus.

the lines are so chaotic with that, they dip like crazy throughout the match. would a book shut you down for that? warn you? i can't imagine they'd be happy about it.

[PaperTrail07]

w the limits they have they don't give AF....there is no big $ live wagering going on.....if you snipe them for a $50 spot.....congrats...

i was going to ask a similar question not too long ago about this. i noticed pre-game live wagering with esports, for example, where the favorite is like -220 and the underdog +175. so, lets say you dump $200 on the underdog. match starts, and the dog is winning 7-2 in first couple of minutes. line on the favorite suddenly becomes +125. dump $200 on him.. and now you're making at least $50 plus.

the lines are so chaotic with that, they dip like crazy throughout the match. would a book shut you down for that? warn you? i can't imagine they'd be happy about it.

[Waterstpub87]

i was going to ask a similar question not too long ago about this. i noticed pre-game live wagering with esports, for example, where the favorite is like -220 and the underdog +175. so, lets say you dump $200 on the underdog. match starts, and the dog is winning 7-2 in first couple of minutes. line on the favorite suddenly becomes +125. dump $200 on him.. and now you're making at least $50 plus.

the lines are so chaotic with that, they dip like crazy throughout the match. would a book shut you down for that? warn you? i can't imagine they'd be happy about it.

This is a really good question.

Consider that the pregame you got at 175, at 200 bucks. At the point you mention, you can buy it back at 200 at 125, guaranteeing an average of 50-150, with the expected value of 109.18

Instead if you let it run, you get 200*1.75*.5918 for a value of 207.13 minus 81.64 if you lose, for a total value of 125.49. Not hedging is worth 8% of your initial investment.

Numbers behind it:
At the midgame hedge, assume the line is 125 to -165, for a vig free -145/145
That gives side A a 59.18% change of winning.

The book would be happy with hedging, they wont care. They want you to pay as much vig as possible. They collect much more vig from you when you hedge.

[CIS]

I do it with esports tbh. With CSGO. But i dont hedge often. I just keep it running but its deffo possible to live hedge it. But i also watch like 3-5 games per day, every day and do notes on teams, prematch and inplay and listen comments, talk with other people to get information. basically everything to find value inplay. And i do this on pinnacle but its hard grind and sometimes very frustrating. Also theres luck factor also in atleast in CSGO so frustration is something you must deal with. But as i said, the knowledge and screen time you will need is just crazy. Its definetely a full time job if you want to have some edge. Otherwise you just wasting time.
Also idk about other bookies and maybe there are traders who adjust odds but Pinny does not have trader and its all automatical taking into consideration key factors. What it does not take into consideration is game meta and fundamentals. Thats the edge

Anyways good luck with that

[Gaze73]

I agree, there's nothing worse than seeing your big value play get blown up in the last minutes.

Before covid I used to trade tennis, there are huge price swings on each break.

[BigdaddyQH]

Simply not worth the headaches for what normally turns out to be a loss, or a very small profit at best.

[Gaze73]

Simply not worth the headaches for what normally turns out to be a loss, or a very small profit at best.

Depends. I like to bet soccer draws and dogs. Imagine taking a dog at +600, the dog leads 2:0 with 15 minutes to go. Do you green up and take 90% of the profit or let it run? You'll be cursing like a sailor when they blow it in the 94th minute. Same with draws, I just hedged one today. Zaglebie was 0-0 until 88th minute, I cashed out in 87th. I am tracking my hedge bets in a spreadsheet and they saved me a lot of money already. Once there was a sick run of 8 out of 10 draws losing after 90', hedged all of them.

[PaperTrail07]

Big $ does not gamble.....they always win

[PaperTrail07]

Another common big +$ opportunity is MLB....a -200-300 goes up 1/2-0 early the line usually jumps to +600 and beyond.....there is a lot of ball left and shit can happen.....even better when its (2) bad teams playing-the better teams close games out more consistently....

Depends. I like to bet soccer draws and dogs. Imagine taking a dog at +600, the dog leads 2:0 with 15 minutes to go. Do you green up and take 90% of the profit or let it run? You'll be cursing like a sailor when they blow it in the 94th minute. Same with draws, I just hedged one today. Zaglebie was 0-0 until 88th minute, I cashed out in 87th. I am tracking my hedge bets in a spreadsheet and they saved me a lot of money already. Once there was a sick run of 8 out of 10 draws losing after 90', hedged all of them.

[moses millsap]

Do it w a reputable book or place your bets during a designated break. I’ve had so many issues with players complaining about live bets’ odds being changed and accepted without warning. Also, many complain about slow confirmations etc.

[weeminer]

Def need to only bet at breaks.

[Sawyer]

I don't know if I believe that.

Yes, the lines are going to maybe be softer, because they are making it on the fly. And theoretically, if it is some trader sitting there punching in prices, yea, that makes sense.

An alternative reality is that they have a computer that crunches the numbers and spits out a real time line. This line being more accurate than you think it would be. They then charge you -120 a side, 4 times the juice that you get at -105 pregame. Additionally, anytime they dont like the line later, they cancel your bet and say bad line. Maybe it can work, if you arb the line with another book. But good luck getting that Arb with that level of juice, as well hoping that you can close the other one when you bet the first.

Eventually, if you start to win live betting, without betting anything else, they close your account. How much can you even get down on a live line?

It going to be operationally harder than you think it is. Especially when you start to actually win.

Well, every book is different. Some books will limit you even after 2-3 bets. Some books will limit you after few weeks. Sometimes, it will last 2 months.


When you're limited at one bookmaker, switch to other one. Everybook has many clones and there's more then 1000 bookmakers in the world.

[Waterstpub87]

Well, every book is different. Some books will limit you even after 2-3 bets. Some books will limit you after few weeks. Sometimes, it will last 2 months.


When you're limited at one bookmaker, switch to other one. Everybook has many clones and there's more then 1000 bookmakers in the world.

If that's the case, that good.
I don't bet live, not familiar with the limiting. You probably have much more experience with this than me.

Unfortunately, those of us in the land of the free don't have 1,000s of books. I have 3 offshore books that I am still comfortable with depositing and US facing books, which people say are quicker to limit, but I haven't experienced them yet.

The limiting has to be a factor for concern for this strategy.