I hope the solution is simarly simple.In mlb how do i determine whether the runline or moneyline has more value? I assume as the totals go up the rl gains value. For an example lets say ari is -130/-1.5+120 over colorado and the total is 9. Which has more value the ml or the rl ?
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One of the numbers guys is going to tell you that it depends on how often you expect them to win and then win by 1.5 runs... That is where my understanding of it goes out the window. I have asked this question before and havent really been able to get a NOVICE response...Comment -
You would have to put in the hard work to find value for RL plays. Since you have expressed no interest in doing so, hoping instead for a simple solution, there seems little or no reason to point you in the right direction. Look up base runs on wikipedia, and see what you think.Comment -
It would only be a minor mistake to ignore runlines entirely.Comment -
Develop a push chart for 1-run home wins as a function of total and home-team moneyline (for when the home team is favored).
Do the same for favored visitors (the two will be very different due to the extra half-inning).
With those push charts, you'll know the value of +1.5, and can adjust the game moneyline accordingly.Comment -
Dark Horse despite my post i actually am willing to put in some work. Understand though that i am no math math expert and have limited excel skills. So if you would point me in the the right direction i would appreciate it.Comment -
Record your results and see how it works out for you, make a few plays and see what happens like anything you do it may take some time to catch on.Comment -
So its your first post ever. You just breezed in with a solid question.
ANOTHER INEQUALITY, WHICH IS GREATER?
RUN LINE IN DECIMAL FORM(PERCENTAGE THAT THE RUN LINE WINS)
V.
MONEY LINE IN DECIMAL FORM X PERCENT THAT MONEY LINE WINS.
RL(%RL) >?<ML(%ML)
I WOULD LOOK AT ARIZONA'S WINS. LIKE JUSTIN SAID I THINK. HE DID NOT EXPLAIN WHAT A PUSH CHART IS, TO THOSE WHO DON'T KNOW.
AND SEE, HOW OFTEN DO THEY WIN BY ONE, AND HOW OFTEN DO THEY WIN BY 2 OR MORE.
NYM
L9-6
2
NYM
W5-2
3
NYM
W6-5
4
PIT
W6-0
5
PIT
W4-3
6
PIT
W11-6
7
WAS
L7-6
8
WAS
L5-2
9
WAS
L9-2
10
NYM
W7-4
11
HERE'S AZ'S LAST 10 GAMES. OUT OF THE ONES THE WON, THEY WENT...
WON BY 1 (MONEY LINE WIN): 2. WON BY 2 OR MORE (RUN LINE WIN): SHIT IT WAS 4!!!
SO THE TEAM, HERE'S THE THING THEY WON THE MONEY LINE ALL 6 TIMES THEY WON.
BUT THEY WON THE RUN LINE BET, 4 TIMES ONLY. OR 66% OF THE TIME.
SO PLUG 100% INTO THE EQUATION AND 66% INTO THE EQUATION, AND...
1.8 (-130) TIMES 100% >?< 2.2 (+!20 IN DECIMAL) X 66%
SO, IF WE AGREE THAT AZ WINS RUNLINE BETS 66% OF THE TIME (AND YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER HOW OFTEN COLORADO WOULD GIVE UP A RUN LINE LOSS, THUS FLUCTUATING THE 66& TO MAYBE 55% OR 70% OR EVEN 45%, WHTEVER YOU FIGURE. AND YOU COULD LOOK AT THE WHO SEASON, OR LAST 20 GAMES, FOR BOTH TEAMS, OR JUST AZ, OR WHOEVER YOU THINK IS GONNA CONTROL THE GAMES TEMPO....
AND 1.8 IS GREATER THAN 1.5 OR 2.2 X .66.blog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
Ty for the helpful reply but is it better to develop a push chart for a single Individual teams or for the league as a whole ? Also how far back should we track the data. Last 10 games last 20 games or something different ?ANOTHER INEQUALITY, WHICH IS GREATER?
RUN LINE IN DECIMAL FORM(PERCENTAGE THAT THE RUN LINE WINS)
V.
MONEY LINE IN DECIMAL FORM X PERCENT THAT MONEY LINE WINS.
RL(%RL) >?<ML(%ML)
I WOULD LOOK AT ARIZONA'S WINS. LIKE JUSTIN SAID I THINK. HE DID NOT EXPLAIN WHAT A PUSH CHART IS, TO THOSE WHO DON'T KNOW.
AND SEE, HOW OFTEN DO THEY WIN BY ONE, AND HOW OFTEN DO THEY WIN BY 2 OR MORE.
NYM
L9-6
2
NYM
W5-2
3
NYM
W6-5
4
PIT
W6-0
5
PIT
W4-3
6
PIT
W11-6
7
WAS
L7-6
8
WAS
L5-2
9
WAS
L9-2
10
NYM
W7-4
11
HERE'S AZ'S LAST 10 GAMES. OUT OF THE ONES THE WON, THEY WENT...
WON BY 1 (MONEY LINE WIN): 2. WON BY 2 OR MORE (RUN LINE WIN): SHIT IT WAS 4!!!
SO THE TEAM, HERE'S THE THING THEY WON THE MONEY LINE ALL 6 TIMES THEY WON.
BUT THEY WON THE RUN LINE BET, 4 TIMES ONLY. OR 66% OF THE TIME.
SO PLUG 100% INTO THE EQUATION AND 66% INTO THE EQUATION, AND...
1.8 (-130) TIMES 100% >?< 2.2 (+!20 IN DECIMAL) X 66%
SO, IF WE AGREE THAT AZ WINS RUNLINE BETS 66% OF THE TIME (AND YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER HOW OFTEN COLORADO WOULD GIVE UP A RUN LINE LOSS, THUS FLUCTUATING THE 66& TO MAYBE 55% OR 70% OR EVEN 45%, WHTEVER YOU FIGURE. AND YOU COULD LOOK AT THE WHO SEASON, OR LAST 20 GAMES, FOR BOTH TEAMS, OR JUST AZ, OR WHOEVER YOU THINK IS GONNA CONTROL THE GAMES TEMPO....
AND 1.8 IS GREATER THAN 1.5 OR 2.2 X .66.Comment