What my stake per bet should be?

**Jimmy Beamish** · 12-10-19, 11:44 PM

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/How-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting/2BT2LK6K2QWQ7QJ8

its quite aggressive. so gamblers use half kelly, 1/3 kelly, etc...

**CIS** · 12-11-19, 06:11 AM

Thanks for the link

Yes i know Kelly, have thought using half kelly which should be compared to my avg roi, around 1.5-2.5% per bet but with my case, theres a problem with that. Which is that i dont know the edge. I get the info and i have like 10sec to make a bet so trying to judge the possible line movement will make me miss the move if you get what i mean... Sometimes line moves from +0.5 to -0.5 @1.8 decimal. some times the move is less, like with basketball, -2.5 to -5 or -6 with 1.8 odds. I make ok money now with current staking but i still feel that i miss good runs regarding with profit and bet too conservative...

**DoctorStrong** · 12-11-19, 10:21 AM

to play it safe use 1% of your bankroll and when on a hot streak bump it up to between 2-3%

**Bsims** · 12-12-19, 03:51 AM

Originally posted by DoctorStrong

to play it safe use 1% of your bankroll and when on a hot streak bump it up to between 2-3%

Not wanting to start a verbal war here, but. There aren't any hot (or cold streaks).

**veriableodds** · 12-12-19, 02:07 PM

all depends on amount of wagers yearly , and how much one wants to lay yearly

**Sawyer** · 12-13-19, 08:56 AM

Don't use Kelly. Bet flat. Around %1-2. Good luck!

**KVB** · 12-13-19, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Don't use Kelly. Bet flat. Around %1-2. Good luck!

I agree with this. At best there are some gamblers running running partial Kelly, but a flat bet, increasing or decreasing as the bankroll reaches certain levels will save a bettor a lot of money in vig alone.

Good to see Sawyer peeking in now and again, SBR could use it.

**Bsims** · 12-13-19, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Don't use Kelly. Bet flat. Around %1-2. Good luck!

Let me join KVB in supporting the flat bet approach. I understand Kelly and there are some long threads here about it. It just adds more complexity and variability. Just pick winners and keep it simple.

**coolguy73739** · 12-16-19, 02:43 AM

You do Flat betting, You do exotic betting, You do Kelly or Martingale betting, Whatever shit you do, you will lose if you don't have a good betting Model or system that gives you a rough idea of who is heading the number game in the Matchup between two teams.

I have tried every method mentioned above and lost heavily due to lack of a solid reliable betting Model. Since losing for last six long seasons, I have refined and tweaked my Model and finally plucking the Fruits off my hard work this season.. Believe you me, it doesn't matter whether you bet 1% or 10% of your Bankroll provided you are confident of your edge on the game based on your system.
If you know the NUMBER GAME, Money will keep flowing into your bank whether you play 1% or 5% of your Bankroll. ( Not crossing 10% bankroll each bet will be a sensible thing to do to stay disciplined although I have gone ALL-IN sometimes but with a sharp edge and nailed the game. ( ofcourse I had a backup Bankroll to support my crazy action)...
Most of us here don't have a Model and they are never sure of their Perceived edge..
So much emphasis is placed on Percentage of Bankroll ( per unit) on these Forums that the CORE component of betting which is THE EDGE is almost always forgotten or ignored.
Nothing can work unless you know what your edge is.. Everyone keeps bitching and whining about Backdoor cover, teams not playing to their potential, so on and so on not realizing that all these are factored into THE LINE already. For a good share of games, even Bookmakers are not sure of their edges so how the hell in the world do we average bettors could even dream of winning those UNPREDICTABLE games I wonder.
I like to draw an Analogy to Percentage of Bankroll here..
Percentage of Bankroll can be a MULTI-VITAMIN or POISON based on whether you playing with an EDGE or without it..
In the absence of any Sharp edge or acumen, 1% bankroll will inject 1% poison in your body so you don't feel so bad (not that painful) and miserable but eventually we all are gonna die unless you have covered all angles before placing your bet.
For the same injection, A sharp bettor with a sharp edge will get a boost of 1% MULTI-VITAMIN once he is playing sensibly and in Discipline. Even if he plays rough and takes his chances with 5%, he can still getting benefitted since he is getting injected with MULTI-VITAMIN and not POISON per se..

Long story Short, If we all can sharpen our betting skills ( myself included), we can aim to convert that lethal POISON into MULTI-VITAMIN at some stage of our betting Career.. Without a strong betting Model and edge, we all going to die a SLOW DEATH..

Good Luck!!

**CIS** · 12-16-19, 04:26 PM

Thanks everyone for the information

Probably will continue with 1% and try redefine my stake at the end of week regarding whether BR went up or down. Also when good info then go with 2% and try to push a bit my edge...
Also thanks coolguy for your post. Altough it seems a bit offtopic i still appreciate the effort.

Regarding with my betting model then i dont compile odds myself. I just strictly follow the chosen tipsters who are mostly specialists in their own leagues/countries and therefore not much games available in Asian markets which means that often times i bet on wrong/value lines(line drops heavily due the fact that i basically bet the same line/odds as tipped) and bookies have less info than those specialists. Heck, i can even dutch it for profitable outcome but then margins would be smaller.

**winnerloser** · 12-16-19, 05:29 PM

you dont need an algorithm to make $$$$

**Believe_EMT** · 12-17-19, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Don't use Kelly. Bet flat. Around %1-2. Good luck!

will also echo KVB here and say it is good to see Sawyer checking in on us.

completely agree with this statement, although i rarely play anything higher than 1.5%

all of these statements are missing the most important lesson.

even in a fair game, let alone one where the house has built in edge of more than 4%, over a long enough time span the bettor will go broke because the house has a near infinite bankroll compared to the bettor.

that was my best shot at paraphrasing risk of ruin. and given the volume of bets you mentioned CIS, i have to believe you could look back through your results and easily find losing streaks of 10 or 15 games. should even be outlier around the 20 game mark in that data. (was anyone else around when RAS went 3-23 on college hoops totals a few years back? if a guy hitting what might have been career 63% winners at that time can fall victim to match, we all can.) however, i am a big fan of volume, it will reduce variance and/or bad luck, whatever you want to label it. but that volume betting requires nearly every play to stay at or very near that 1% mark, otherwise you will burn through a significant amount of your BR in a single bad week.

GL

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-17-19, 02:57 PM

Flat wagering will make you the most money IF you have a solid system. You also have to have it inside your gut. You have to know when to wager and when not to wager no matter what the info says. If Your gut feeling is not sharp, you cannot win. I have saved a lot of money by holding off when everything said to wager because something inside told me not to make the wager. That is something that you are born with. It is extremely difficult to learn.

**Gaze73** · 12-17-19, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by DoctorStrong

to play it safe use 1% of your bankroll and when on a hot streak bump it up to between 2-3%

Worst advice ever. Every hot streak is invariably followed by a bad streak so if anything, halving the stakes makes more sense. Let's say you have a crazy good 20-5 Week and think you're unbeatable. Now you triple your stakes and go 5-8. Overall record 25-13 but you made a loss because of greed.

**CIS** · 12-19-19, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

will also echo KVB here and say it is good to see Sawyer checking in on us.

completely agree with this statement, although i rarely play anything higher than 1.5%

all of these statements are missing the most important lesson.

even in a fair game, let alone one where the house has built in edge of more than 4%, over a long enough time span the bettor will go broke because the house has a near infinite bankroll compared to the bettor.

that was my best shot at paraphrasing risk of ruin. and given the volume of bets you mentioned CIS, i have to believe you could look back through your results and easily find losing streaks of 10 or 15 games. should even be outlier around the 20 game mark in that data. (was anyone else around when RAS went 3-23 on college hoops totals a few years back? if a guy hitting what might have been career 63% winners at that time can fall victim to match, we all can.) however, i am a big fan of volume, it will reduce variance and/or bad luck, whatever you want to label it. but that volume betting requires nearly every play to stay at or very near that 1% mark, otherwise you will burn through a significant amount of your BR in a single bad week.

GL

thanks mate for your detailed reply

I totally agree regarding with the volume betting here. I analysed and yes, have been losing streaks for about 15 losers, 4 winners and 1 push. I was trying to play with stakes also this month but so far it has not been the greatest. If i analysed my performance so far then difference is quite huge. Around 3% in ROI. So this month so far has a ROI around 6.31% while with flat betting according to simulation would have been 9.6% So quite a difference here

Probs will go til the end of the month same as i started and then analyse this month performance. I think will keep going with 1% flat but gonna be more selective regarding with the info i stake. Usually its more profitable to bet less than you want to bet in order to make more than you expected to make.

**CIS** · 12-19-19, 10:43 AM

Yes i agree with that. Sometimes it burns a lot by not listening your gut...