Thoughts

**semibluff** · 10-19-19, 05:59 PM

Do something else with your time and money.

**Natedog** · 10-19-19, 06:52 PM

Not real helpful bro, I enjoy to much lol and like I say I stake responsibly don't chase etc. So I enjoy it

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 10-19-19, 07:58 PM

If you're just betting for fun, 1 or 2.

99.999% of handicapping services are coinflippers or outright scammers. The rare ones with a genuine edge will shut down their service quickly and go solo.

**Natedog** · 10-19-19, 08:30 PM

I tend to think fade the public is something people to say to sound smart and has little edge.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 10-19-19, 09:40 PM

Yes, of course - don't expect to make any money doing these. But at least you're not paying a handicapping service also.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-19-19, 11:52 PM

an easy thing is to follow kambour.net or prediction tracker to give you some idea of what games might be mispriced and then pick from those (or go the other way)...... games tend to be "power rating"-mispriced earlier in the year. and i'm not saying it's a winning way to bet, just give alot of ideas.

and look at killersports.com and specialize in either positive trends or some sort of bottoming mean-reversion (backing terrible teams had huge spreads)......

over/under is something where you can come up with ideas pretty easily........ under vs. under, over vs. over. big under vs. big over (i've always been curious about this last one myself)

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-19-19, 11:54 PM

i used to get the goldsheet on my bloomberg terminal.

i loved some of the category plays they had... things like top teams with average offense (don't cover). coaches as underdog etc. etc. lots of cool ideas that made sense (again, might not be winners, but the reasoning was easy to follow

**Bsims** · 10-20-19, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Natedog

For someone that doesn't have enough programming or handicapping skills to warrant the time/return.

I merely want to make a hobby slightly profitable or not lose to much.

You won't make money. Presumably you like to watch games on TV. Bet primarily on these. Pick a subset of leagues (like the Big 10 if you live in the midweek). Watch these games and you'll get a sense of relative strengths. Good luck.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-20-19, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by Bsims

You won't make money. Presumably you like to watch games on TV. Bet primarily on these. Pick a subset of leagues (like the Big 10 if you live in the midweek). Watch these games and you'll get a sense of relative strengths. Good luck.

i agree....... i think good familiarity with your local conference, and some good critical thinking, can make you a winner. at the very least, you can pick your spots and probably be a net winner on a limited selection of games.

**Natedog** · 10-20-19, 06:19 PM

I went 18-5 on MLB totals using a spreadsheet that imported data from fangraphs it was very basic than line&odds shopped bet on the biggest variance. I believe it was mostly pot luck so when it went cold lost interest.
Similar story with NHL I'm Australian so have no idea on NHL rules etc

**semibluff** · 10-20-19, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Natedog

Not real helpful bro, I enjoy to much lol and like I say I stake responsibly don't chase etc. So I enjoy it

There are several ways to make money in this business. You can know something that books overlook and exploit that knowledge, (a la John Carter), you can have a programming/analysis edge, you can be a better handicapper than the books, or you can out-hustle the market by chasing steam and picking off bad lines, (which is time-consuming and requires a lot of dedication and perseverance). Your opening post suggests you have no edge and you're not willing to put in a lot of time. There are only 3 options left. You can out-luck everyone, (lottery strategy), you can pay touts, (most are fake and even if you pay the right people it still requires a lot of dedication and perseverance), or...you can do something else with your time and money. The last option is my advice.

If you're playing for entertainment then just be aware of that fact. Don't bet with money you can't afford to lose and don't let the results affect you or the people around you - because you are going to lose.

**Natedog** · 10-20-19, 06:26 PM

Also found handicapping was time consuming so have subscribed to betql and only taking there 5 star bets see where that takes me

**Natedog** · 10-20-19, 06:27 PM

Cheers everyone also

**Believe_EMT** · 10-21-19, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

If you're just betting for fun, 1 or 2.

99.999% of handicapping services are coinflippers or outright scammers. The rare ones with a genuine edge will shut down their service quickly and go solo.

unsure what the go solo piece means.

if it means, they are going to play their plays instead of selling, i slightly disagree

better for respected capper that moves markets to take risk free hundreds or thousands of $$$ per year, or go through the work of finding places to get down his action, getting booted from books, both virtual and brick and mortar alike, facing limits, etc.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-21-19, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by Natedog

I tend to think fade the public is something people to say to sound smart and has little edge.

think sports insights or whatever the name is (way too expensive for my taste), has some system(s) based on fading the public view. the good piece, however, is they have some historical data on the site about how all of their systems performed the last few years.

**Believe_EMT** · 10-21-19, 08:19 AM

define hobby. if you're goal is to add interest while watching a televised game, then you are on the right track with keeping your BR to money you can afford to lose and keeping plays around 1% of your BR.

if your goal is to make money, it can be done, even as a 'hobby'.

i cleared ~26 Units in MLB last year as a hobby. took about 10-15 minutes a day.

your mindset needs to be:
a huge penalty exists for bettors that are wrong - they go broke
the market is efficient
the market is infinitely smarter than me (or you, or any single bettor)
bet early, to get best number
the market will send you signals as to the +EV or -EV of your bet

and the most important piece:

REACT TO WHAT THE MARKET TELLS YOU ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENT!!!!

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-21-19, 04:52 PM

are there not lots of "free" handicappers? bloggers etc........... kambour.net was one i mentioned. his work will give an idea vis-a-vis line vs power ratings (of course, power ratings dont adjust for injury nor "trend")

i think teamrankings.com teamratings.com??? has free picks. not certain

**gojetsgomoxies** · 10-21-19, 04:54 PM

not sure where you live etc., but if you're doing it for fun, you can bet $10 a game with a sports book (i wouldn't bother electronic, only B&M) or with a buddy

or just do a blog here and don't bet anything........ but all picks before games start