Playing Middles And What An Unquestionable Sharp Says About Them

**TommieGunshot** · 06-13-19, 12:44 PM

-For a middle to be profitable, it needs to land on the number 5% of the time. In the NFL, there are only four numbers that exceed that, 3, 6, 7, and 10. Four and 14 are close.
-Getting 1.5 or 2 points can sometimes add up to 5%, but not always. In the NFL, it's especially true if one of those six numbers listed above isn't included.
-There are only 256 games, there will be very few opportunities where a bettor will be able to find both 5.5 and 6.5 at the same time -- and most of those opportunities will be gone once the first person hits it for a max bet.
-Concept can be applied to any sport with a point spread, with thousands of NCAA games in football and basketball, it becomes a bit easier to find
-Still must always be able to know the probability that the middle hits. Can't do that, most likely losing bets. Can do it, they are winning bets.
-Sort of like saying, just find companies that are undervalued and by stock in them, not always the easiest thing to do
-Holzhauer would agree with everything I just said.

**semibluff** · 06-13-19, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

-For a middle to be profitable, it needs to land on the number 5% of the time...

Middles don't require a universal 5% probability to be successful. Betting a middle is effectively betting a long-shot at favourable odds. A 4% probability will be profitable to bet long term provided you getting more than the break-even base of +2400. A 5% probability will be break-even at +1900. Above that it is should be profitable and below that it would be unprofitable.

**Sawyer** · 06-13-19, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

The 1st example of +110; -105 is an arb not a middle. It could be a +/- typo so no harm no foul. I would doubt there's a middle at -110; -105 with a push rather than a win. I don't follow the NBA so I don't have any insight as to the probability of a specific points differential outcome. The SBR half point calculator suggests the probability of a 6 point win is 4.16%, and based on that the true odds break even point, (including winning both bets on the middle) would be +6½ @-108.7; -5½ @-108.7. The odds would rarely be exactly in the centre so there could be -109 on 1 side and -105 on the other, (14 spots). As a rough guide the NBA line differential at 6 based on -108.7 is 17.4 spots. Where the market is below 17.4 spots then over the long term you should be in +ev territory. That is of course if the SBR half point probability is correct, which is a big if. The problems with long losing streaks betting at +2304 on what might be a +2100 probability is also well known.

The middle can be positive or negative. As long as there's a chance to win both bets, this is called middle. It can be Warriors -3½ -105 Raptors +4 -101. It doesn't matter. It's an arb too but called Negative arb.

**TommieGunshot** · 06-13-19, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

Middles don't require a universal 5% probability to be successful. Betting a middle is effectively betting a long-shot at favourable odds. A 4% probability will be profitable to bet long term provided you getting more than the break-even base of +2400. A 5% probability will be break-even at +1900. Above that it is should be profitable and below that it would be unprofitable.

Holzhaur lives and bets in Las Vegas, the standard here is -110. If it was at reduced priced, it should have been mentioned in the original article, as that is extremely important and would make the issue a lot more than just "Playing middles". I was able to bet -105 last year at low limits. That's gone now. If Jeopardy Jamie is betting those prices, it means the real edge is finding odds no one else knows about

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-14-19, 03:23 PM

I didn't waste my time on much of this. But I'll add my two cents:

*Holzhauer has in fact talked middling being part of his game. Reality is that live two-way middles don't show up in current market-place. Lines move too fast.

-9.5 and +10.5 just doesn't show too often. And if it does, it doesn't last long.

Expanding on this topic would be a better approach. Holzhauer has talked about hedging vs his future exposure. James claimed to have good success on future betting. If he stood to make a BIG score, he would slowly hedge off to guarantee a solid profit. Reasonable, but remember that each hedge has a price.

More interesting is the concept of BTCL value. Most players consider BTCL value to be the beginning + the end. Hard to carve out a profit if your average ticket doesn't have an edge vs the closing line.