Point Differential NFL System
Has anyone tried this system:
If so, how successful is it, and can it be used for college football as well?
If so, how successful is it, and can it be used for college football as well?
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It could be used for college football. And other sports with Points For and Points Against stats.
I looked at it because I was interested in it (Math minor). The guy does a horrible job of explaining it. No meanness, just truth (ex-tutor).
It seems like it could be a decent tool to use to work some totals betting.Comment -
I just did some backtesting on just a handfull of last years pro and college games, and for the most part, the system was pretty accurate for totals and the spread. It does take a helluva a lot of time to calculate the numbers. I wish there was a much simpler way to work this system.Comment -
That's the thing. With a setup that many people here already have (databases automatically populated with stats each week), by Week 7 or 8, you can have it set up in Excel to spit these numbers out in a second.Comment -
I'm trying this system for this weekend's CFL games (Yeah, I know it's far more inferior CFL. Just need something to work on until real football begins in a little over a month). Here are the match-ups and predicted scores, according to the system.
Hamilton 14
Montreal 39
Toronto 21
Winnipeg 33
Calgary 36
BC Lions 31
Edomonton 23
Saskatchewan 35
According to this system you take the team straight up that has at least a 5 point difference between the predicted margin of victory and the point spread. Example: Montreal is favored by -14, but they're predicted to win by 25, which is a difference of 11. Therefore, Montreal should be taken straight up at -14. Other examples;
Saskatchewan -4, predicted to win by 12. Take Saskatchewan straight up
Winnipeg -4, predicted to win by 12. Take Winnipeg straight up.
Calgary -2.5, predicted to win by 5. Don't take Calgary because there's only a 2.5 point difference between the predicted margin of victory and the point spread.
As an experiment, I'm taking Montreal -14, Winnipeg -4, and Saskatchewan -4 straight up.
For a 13.5 point teaser, I'm taking Montreal -0.5, Winnipeg +9.5, BC Lions +16, Saskatchewan +9.5
Lets see what happens.Comment -
Square-sharp pablum that gets mercilessly sawed up by the market.Comment -
FWIW, this formula appeared in "The Hidden Game Of Football" a book thats over 20 years old.Comment -
the record posted in that thread wasn't that impressive. 24-22Comment
