I'm wondering if anyone has any experience with Accuscore at all for baseball. I tried to contact them to no avail. My issue is with their numbers that they use in their archive for their Daily Line Report. For example, last night (July 12) for the Reds/Mets game, Accuscore had a 50/50 split in simulated winning, and the closing line on Pinny was -101/-107 with the Mets as favorites. Based on the way that Accuscore picks side values it would seem that the Reds were the side value in that game, but I downloaded the DLR today and the line they reported on their archive is actually -107/-101, which meant the Mets were the side value, but based on the closing lines at Pinny (and Accuscore's Live Betting site), the Reds were the SV and the bet was lost. I'm wondering if anyone has had problems like this with them in the past, because they seem to do this a lot with close games: they take a line that gives them a win in their archives, bumping up their numbers, but it hurts those of us actually using the service. Does anyone know when they close their lines because they don't feel like getting back to me.
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I recommend skipping their line reports, and just gather the data beforehand. They appear to game their numbers ex post to improve results, and that obviously will not help you.
BTW, did you ask them if they do 5 inning simulations? I don't see it anywhere on their site.Comment -
I don't quite understand what you mean by gathering the data beforehand. I'm not much of a handicapper, and I thought this might be a way to start getting the feel for how to do this.
I don't think they do 5 inning sims, but I'm going to ask them now that you mention it.Comment -
By "beforehand", I mean capturing their simulation numbers before the games start. Of course, this won't do you any good for capturing historical information. I'm not sure their historical data can be relied upon because of their propensity to "game" the numbers in their favor.Comment -
Oh, ok. I wasn't sure because you mentioned skipping their line reports, so I got confused. I've been using two books for the majority of the MLB season so far, and for the most part, I just use their simulated numbers and generate my own side values using the lines I get. The only problem is where the lines are so close to the simulated values that the books disagree. In that case I usually go with their side value using Pinny's lines. It's frustrating because it happened twice last night (mets/reds and brewers/dodgers), and they ended up being plus 89 while I was down half of about $340 (I'm only doing $50 per game). Hopefully the second half of the season will yield better numbers for me. Thanks for the help.Comment -
FYI, I had NYM -101, and got +104. I also had LAD +125, and got +127.
If you bet the closers on either one of these, you would have gone the other way and lost. I think this illustrates well when Accuscore "games" the numbers to go in their favor.
Stay away from betting against the closing numbers, and you should fare much better.Comment -
So I think then that I'll just lock in the lines about an hour or two before the games and use those. Thanks again for your help, I really appreciate it.Comment -
I find Accuscore to be very helpful. I can see how there could be a problem with very close games. Personally I just avoid betting on the 50-50 games. Good discussion.Comment -
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...bed-plays.html.
I bet all games 6% off the AS %, which I'm assuming to be correct. Might be off by a % or two. Especially on 50/50 games you take the side with + odds. Is this a bad idea?
Any ideas where I can get the AS line? The ESPN one seems to come out at like 3am on the day of the games. I'd like to see it at 9pm the day before the games when pinnacle has their opening lines.Comment -
That seems to be a decent strategy, FreeFall. I noticed you're up on the season going about it that way. I'm going to do a little research to see how I would have done if I just took the side with the + odds in the "toss-ups".
I don't know where you'd be able to get the pre-line sims. You can try emailing them, but if you don't have a membership I don't think they'll help you out. Even with a membership, they wait until the Pinny lines are out before posting the DLR because they use the Pinny lines in their DLR. You could try them out and see if they can give you sim numbers ahead of the lines.Comment -
A membership to where? Where can I get the DLR? I normally wait till espn posts the AS lines which is pretty late so I was wondering where I could get them when pinny lines come out. That would be even better than what I'm doing now.Comment -
To Accuscore. They post their Daily Line Report usually after all of the day's games are done, around 10:00 pacific time.Comment -
if you get a membership at AS, do you think you could get their daily line report really early?Comment -
That I'm not sure about. I'm sure it's something you could ask them before you get a membership.Comment -
When I used them I found they were pretty inconsistent with their closing lines. Could never get a straight answer from them as to exactly when they pick the closing line. They always get the better line when it matters and get the worse line when it doesn't. Their records are not what they claim them to be. If you look they always seem to do better on games where the line has the smallest deviation from the actual line rather, it makes no sense.Comment -
That's got to severely skew their results, doesn't it? I would think that makes a big difference over the course of the season. Do you know if it's the same way with basketball?Comment -
So I did a little work using my historical data. I've been using two books for most of the season. A few years ago I opened up a Sportsinteraction account and I've been using them, and I also opened an account at the Greek.
With the All-Star break I took the opportunity to empty my SIA account and I put the funds into an account at Bookmaker. So, like I said, there would be times that the lines at SIA gave a different side value than those at the Greek.
Quick side note: SIA has 15 cent lines on close baseball games. Up to the favorite at -145 they're 15 cent lines. The drawback is that when the favorite is around -210 their lines are worse than other books.
Ok, back to it. So, when the side values would differ, I would just go with Accuscore's side value, and that got me into trouble because they seem to fix their numbers. I convert their daily DLR to include my lines and it calculates my side value, and I've saved every one of them so far this season. I went through the entire MLB season so far, and I figured out how I would be different if I a)went with the dog in each 50/50, b)stayed away from the 50/50 altogether, c)stuck with the favorite in each 50/50. Believe it or not, each method returns positive results over the course of this season.
The lowest return is case c) which would have only put me at $133.05 higher (I'm doing $50 a game instead of the $100 that Accuscore uses for their calculations). The middle return is case b) which would put me $323.28 higher than where I am now. The best return came from betting the dog in each 50/50 (not a surprise), which puts me $513.73 up from where I am now.
Thus, for the immediate future I'm going to stick with going with the dog in each 50/50 and see where it takes me. Hopefully this will minimize the damage cause by Accuscore fixing their numbers in their favor.Comment -
I made money using them, I bet every game where they had an edge, I got the best lines available and was kicked out of a bunch of sportsbooks for winning. I hit about 51.7%, the problem I had was that they claimed to be hitting 54-56% in the sports I wagered on. I couldn't continue using them because I knew that to be untrue, and I lost any faith or trust I had in them and quit.
I was placing on average 70 bets a day during basketball only using reduced juice books.Comment
