Betting strictly on substantial line movements

[Swaggy P]

For example a team moves from +150 to -150 before the game starts, would that team win most of the time?

[Swaggy P]

Oops can someone please move this thread to handicapper think tank?

[leetreaper]

NoCoin 2.0

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Think if it like this: with that sort of large move, likely somebody knows something you don't. That person has bet the price down to its current level, and then stopped ......... presumably because there's no value left.

What often happens is that people tail these big moves so much the other side even becomes value.

[Okocha]

Edited

[Okocha]

Op your question is silly,people like myself have built empires with mainly 1-3% edges.Evidently the larger your edge the less variance you ll need to handle.The line movement you ve mentioned above its pretty rare to occur on anyhting else apart obscure Basket,Volley and very niche and shady Soccer(Fixed Serbian etc)
Top Soccer the biggest line moves i ve seen this year were when Messi was unexpectly out 50 cent main Asian drop vs Bilbao and Tottenham and Psg Stars Mbappe Neymar out in a Ligue 1 game.

[danshan11]

most instances movements like that are from injuries to stars and when it happens two things USUALLY happen
1 the line is now efficient with the adjusted line
2 it is too late to assume there is any value here

also it is not indicative that a certain will now win or lose more than the implied percentage from the adjusted line

[pretentiousGuy]

I can't remember the last time I saw a swing that big on match day.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I can't remember the last time I saw a swing that big on match day.

Depends on the sport. Maybe tennis.

In THAT case, it tells u something is up. Usually it is injury info that leaked. The OTHER case...is the FIXED match, where lines can swing from +300 to -300.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

For example a team moves from +150 to -150 before the game starts, would that team win most of the time?

It's a great theoretical question. I think the key is that the # that MATTERS is the price on your ticket.

Reference the concept of BTCL value. Most would say that CLOSING line is stronger than opening line, b/c $$ is backing that #. If u bet it early + u believe in Market Line efficiency...you're staring at 60% chance of cashing a +150 ticket. How can u beat that? That's +50% ROI.

[Bearrob]

It's good question as those moves don't happen naturally. Actually I use them lot of the time. We push obscure league on bet365 with large sum same time and they react with moving margin(for example Africa soccer from 2.75 ML to 1.61).
Then we do cashour for 300 profit per ACC and use created value.

In this way we created ourselves value with making such a move but when it happens out of the blue, in 90% chances it's something shady and it's better to stay away from it.

[StackinGreen]

It's a great theoretical question. I think the key is that the # that MATTERS is the price on your ticket.

Reference the concept of BTCL value. Most would say that CLOSING line is stronger than opening line, b/c $$ is backing that #. If u bet it early + u believe in Market Line efficiency...you're staring at 60% chance of cashing a +150 ticket. How can u beat that? That's +50% ROI.

Hold on, one doesn't bet early but FOR market line inefficiency ...

[Gaze73]

I've seen a team go from +100 to -1000 and lose and another team go from +100 to +1000 and win. Nothing is sure.

[Poisec]

I've seen a team go from +100 to -1000 and lose and another team go from +100 to +1000 and win. Nothing is sure.

You mean inplay, right? That was not the question of the OP.

[Poisec]

For example a team moves from +150 to -150 before the game starts, would that team win most of the time?

The answer is obviously No.

What matters is whether you managed to back the team before the big drop.

[danshan11]

if a team closes at +150 they have a 40% chance to win and if a team closes -150 they have a 60% chance of winning, you have to deduct some of that win percentage for juice, so reality its more like 38% and 58%.

[gojetsgomoxies]

giant moves are often new info NOT the market finding its clearing price. i.e. has nothing to do with closing line vs. opening line efficiency.

a big move without new info, like early season NCAA F, i can't see how you can give 14 points to an opponent when the line opened at 10 points. i'd be inclined to take the other side.

smaller real moves i think the reasonable consensus amongst sharp players is to play the move positively i.e. i think it's called "chasing steam". could be wrong............

but something even better is predicting out how lines will move. example is that the last couple of seasons i have noticed that almost all giant NCAAF opening lines seem to go higher (i think that's right, i'm doing it from memory). although i will note that 3 point move on 35 point spread is nowhere near the same as 3 point move on 5 point line. but i noticed most large spreads seem to move the same way.

i think you can predict NCAAF spread movement.......... haven't really noticed that with any other sport but i don't look at all of them closely

[gojetsgomoxies]

if a team closes at +150 they have a 40% chance to win and if a team closes -150 they have a 60% chance of winning, you have to deduct some of that win percentage for juice, so reality its more like 38% and 58%.

i sensed he wondered if the move itself have predictive significance............. although the move he suggested was massive.

i would note for OP that dan's example that 40% win expectation is actually 38% juice-free. that would make the other side 62% juice-free... i was confused on the 38%, 58% myself but it is correct.

[tsty]

steam chasing is easy money always