Variance can be very deceiving

[Gaze73]

This is what a break-even system looks like. It looked like a gold mine in the first 50 bets, but apparently there is no long term value on home favs.

[danshan11]

Hey Gaze news flash

there is no value in any of these categories by just the category, although there may be value in some of the games in these categories

dogs at home
dogs on road
faves at home
faves on the road
small faves anywhere
big faves anywhere
small dogs anywhere
big dogs anywhere

[TommieGunshot]

50 bets is like one weekend. Not many of us are deceived by that any more

[tsty]

millionaire yet?

[Gaze73]

millionaire yet?

It's a bit harder than I expected. Multiple systems have crashed and burned like the one in the OP, BUT some are still steadily working for several months now and I have many meta-analyses to do yet. Cash printer v2.0 will be ready and rolling by the end of the year.

[Alfa1234]

It's a bit harder than I expected. Multiple systems have crashed and burned like the one in the OP, BUT some are still steadily working for several months now and I have many meta-analyses to do yet. Cash printer v2.0 will be ready and rolling by the end of the year.

Gaze, there is no such thing as a "system", unless you find a model that consistently finds value by beating the closing line, you will not make money at this.

[Gaze73]

I disagree. There are ways to discover vulnerable favs at sucker odds and I have several of them. The majority of my long-term winning systems are draws and dogs, it's not that hard to hit 30+%.

[Alfa1234]

I don't want to bring you down, but you are merely winning thanks to variance in those systems as well if you are simply picking draws and dogs correctly every now and then.

[danshan11]

I disagree. There are ways to discover vulnerable favs at sucker odds and I have several of them. The majority of my long-term winning systems are draws and dogs, it's not that hard to hit 30+%.

there are a couple things here I want to address
#1 sucker odds, they are all sucker odds because they all have juice in them now because of fave long shot bias some have even more juice
#2 winning systems is not a phrase that has a relation to actually winning in sports betting, it sounds like snake oil sales
#3 30+% of what? if you are talking ROI or a 30% edge you are drunk, you need to drink some coffee and take a cold shower.

Gaze it is good you believe in yourself! Get some knowledge dude, read some of the books I am telling you to read!

[danshan11]

you know Gaze some days I win 29 out of 30 and some days I lose 20 out of 20
is my system bad on certain days?

[danshan11]

206-189 (-0.03, 52.2%)

avg line: -142.1 / 128.3

on / against: -$5,002 / +$2,855

ROI: -8.7% / +6.8%

245-140 (1.20, 63.6%)

avg line: -148.9 / 134.0

on / against: +$4,969 / -$7,025

ROI: +8.4% / -17.0%

guess what these are?

they are the yankees on Fridays since 2008 and the yankees on Wednesdays since 2008

looks like betting the Yankees on Wednesday and fading them on Friday is a good bet, try it and see what happens dude!

[danshan11]

you need to learn one very important thing in sports betting, NOISE, what is noise? you have to know what is relevant and means something and what is just noise.

[Gaze73]

#3 30+% of what? if you are talking ROI or a 30% edge you are drunk, you need to drink some coffee and take a cold shower.

30% winrate, it's good enough to make a profit with draws and dogs. My systems are certainly much more logical than "team x playing on wednesdays". And the systems are neither backtested nor backtestable.

[danshan11]

what is the difference of playing on wednesdays and playing just dogs? its the same exact essentially. Any time you make a play on anything for any reason other than their actually being value in that specific game, you are playing NOISE.

[Gaze73]

I don't just bet on all dogs, only on those underestimated by the market for god knows what reasons.

[danshan11]

keep posting keep trying, you will learn some stuff Gaze and will do better, we all do!

[Alfa1234]

I don't just bet on all dogs, only on those underestimated by the market for god knows what reasons.

The problem with only playing dogs is, odds are longer and it will take even longer to weed out the variance if you actually are winning. You could easily have 150+ plays with a 10% or more ROI and have been getting very lucky. The same goes for a "losing system" that's actually winning though.

[tsty]

Your mind set is still wrong

[danshan11]

Your mind set is still wrong

OK, Henry Youngman. Man tsty you are so irritating dude, you probably know some stuff we could all use and you instead choose to nitpick and puss out and not say YOU ARE WRONG BECAUSE blue is not a shade of red and here is proof wikipedia page 718. What if you are wrong Tsty who cares, nobody I say dumb shit everyday and I hope people correct me! Say what you mean man WTF

[grey area]

50 bets is like one weekend. Not many of us are deceived by that any more

only need one but always want more

[tsty]

OK, Henry Youngman. Man tsty you are so irritating dude, you probably know some stuff we could all use and you instead choose to nitpick and puss out and not say YOU ARE WRONG BECAUSE blue is not a shade of red and here is proof wikipedia page 718. What if you are wrong Tsty who cares, nobody I say dumb shit everyday and I hope people correct me! Say what you mean man WTF

That's what I mean

His mind set is still wrong

Thinking that the books are out there to "trick" him lol

It's just more delusion

This thread will end just like every other thread he has made with him telling people that he is right and they are wrong

Yet he still hasn't even made 1k in edge lifetime

Just another day in sportsbetting where people think they can beat maths

[danshan11]

very true but it is still fun and blows me away to hear how people think!