how do i determine if the run line is a good bet?
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Calculate how often a team wins by exactly 1 run at a given moneyline total, do that for home/road situations.
Have fun, you're looking at a good 3-4 weeks work, 8 hours a day if you're starting from scratch and want to get it right.
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I also recommend doing a separate model for AL/NL. In general AL Teams generate their runs in a slightly different way than NL Teams. The difference is small, but if you're going to do the work you might as well account for the split. The designated hitter rule results in a more balanced line-up in the AL that results in runs more likely to be scored in groups, whereas the gap in offense due to the pitcher hitting results in more irregular scoring.Comment -
Run lines are sometimes difficult but it starts with the pitching matchups look at those and look at what the media is saying about the team are they on a run any people injured etc.I have turned 311 into 2300 just by betting the run lines they are very profitable if you are on the right side of things.Just like today with SF Giants vs the Houston Astros I took the -1 1/2 Giants run line at +130 and doubled my money final score8-0 but thats the perfeect example Tim Linceum was pitching ERA 2.57 vs 5.36 .All starts with the picture (pick youre spots)(RIde the streaks)Comment
