Value in Opening Lines

[nash13]

i don't know how good sbr is with external links and screenshots.
here is my table:

http://prntscr.com/kz1hfs

1st Odds column is the odd from the soft bookie once i could catch it at oddsportal. (Actual Odds)
then there are two columns opening line at pinnacle and closing line at pinnacle.
i have a predictive value for the soft bookie which gives me an edge for profit.
now. i will and want to check if there are two conditions. is there still value once the pinnacle line opens and how will this value adapt to increasing and decreasing market odds from pinnacle.
the logic for me is like this: the odds right after opening at pinnacle change drastically for tennis. people are either doing surebets with softbookies or betfair. or they are looking at the same things i try to do.

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/spain/seville-challenger-men/molcan-alex-coppejans-kimmer-zgkRumVg/

here is a matchup which exactly fits my pattern:
Molcan vs Coppejans
Opening Odds at Marathon were 2.77 for Molcan. at 08th September 04:35
2 hours only is the window once Pinnacle opens at 06:31 with odds of 2.43 for Molcan.
while Molcan is loosing his edge, pinnacle closes the game at 2.02 for him.
So while everyone is betting Molcan like crazy Coppejans is getting more and more value if your prediction model is doing well.
So timing of betting is as much as important as selecting the game itself.

[BigdaddyQH]

What you seem to forget is that once you see an opening line, it is too late. The lines offered in Vegas to certain bettors are NOT published until those bettors have had a chance to play them. By that time, the original lines have been corrected, so you are actually seeing a corrected line for the first time. Many times there are immediate corrections made to that line to correct for what Joe Pub is doing, but it is the SECOND correction.

[nash13]

What you seem to forget is that once you see an opening line, it is too late. The lines offered in Vegas to certain bettors are NOT published until those bettors have had a chance to play them. By that time, the original lines have been corrected, so you are actually seeing a corrected line for the first time. Many times there are immediate corrections made to that line to correct for what Joe Pub is doing, but it is the SECOND correction.

thank you, i don't know that. but does this only apply to main sports in vegas like us sports/soccer or does this convert to lower overseas bookies and markets? in my memory main sports are not so vulnerable like tennis lines. but i can be wrong.

[danshan11]

brother Nash if you are saying you have a model and you compare your line to the opening line and if it is off you bet, that my man is what all cappers do.
We model Nottingham at +125 and if they open at +165 we jump on it and we hope it closes at pinnacle at -110, that is what we all do!

if you are saying something different I still am missing it

[nash13]

i read a lot here and elsewhere how important it is to beat the closing line.
Nottingham at +125 and if they open at +165 we jump on it and we hope it closes at pinnacle at -110. that's the easy part.
would you still bet the opener if the closing line would be +145, because you might loose 20 cents on the dollar.

[danshan11]

it works like this
if you bet say
Team A at +140 1000 times
you would expect to win 403 games
if the line closed after you bet at +160
you would expect to win that bet 374 times now
now if the line closed at +120 after you bet
you would expect to win that bet 437 times

only one of these scenarios is profitable and all these scenarios assume pinnacle lines are correct at closing (AKA efficient)

[danshan11]

i read a lot here and elsewhere how important it is to beat the closing line.
Nottingham at +125 and if they open at +165 we jump on it and we hope it closes at pinnacle at -110. that's the easy part.
would you still bet the opener if the closing line would be +145, because you might loose 20 cents on the dollar.

you will go broke for sure betting +140 lines that will close at +132ish or higher, period, there is not further argument EXCEPT if the line is not efficient which in most markets it is

[nash13]

thank you for clarification. i think most of us, at least me, is thinking value is value no matter what.

[danshan11]

thank you for clarification. i think most of us, at least me, is thinking value is value no matter what.

it basically boils down to this question on value is value

say you like the Knickerbockers -6 in your model or mind or whatever and the line is -3 and closes at -3, the question is are you smarter than the entire consensus betting community or do you have some game information that nobody else in the betting community has? if you can answer yes to this then you might stop drinking tequila during your capping sessions or you are filthy rich and dont need to be taking advice from a scrub (NERF) like me (yes I keep trying to get everyone to stick with the term NERF and they wont.