Let it ride.... or arb it?

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  • Tomato
    SBR MVP
    • 01-29-09
    • 1251

    #1
    Let it ride.... or arb it?
    Tomato has found some JUICY lines lately. Juicy like him, when he was young, not like how he looks now.

    Tomato locked in at ATL -125 yesterday. Rather than arb it at +140, Tomato let 'er ride! LOST! This of course is a problem because Tomato doesn't lose!

    Tomato also locked in at ARI +130 yesterday. Could have arbed it at -120, yet he let 'er ride! LOST!

    Why why why!?!? Should Tomato start arbing his bets, or simply take the 10-20% advantage he's getting with his wager and stick to his strategy?
  • u21c3f6
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-17-09
    • 790

    #2
    My recommendation would be to always arb. I personally arb/hedge almost everything I do but I also make the initial wager with the knowledge that I intend to arb/hedge. My initial wager is a larger % of my bankroll than one should use if they were going to let the wager ride.

    I find it easier to increase my bankroll as well as my wagers with consistent smaller gains than trying to manage a bankroll that has larger fluctuations. This is my comfort zone and a part of my edge. It is a personal decision.

    Another consideration. I assume you wrote that those wagers had a 10-20% edge because you beat the closing line. I don’t necessarily believe that. Unless you have a large enough sample size to prove this to yourself, they still may not be +EV wagers even though you beat the closing line. Just because you beat a closing line does not mean you have a +EV wager.


    Good luck with whatever you decide. Joe.
    Comment
    • Pancho sanza
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-18-07
      • 386

      #3
      Originally posted by u21c3f6
      Just because you beat a closing line does not mean you have a +EV wager.

      Good luck with whatever you decide. Joe.
      Maybe you can say this on a given bet but if he beats the closing lines by say 10 % over a large # of plays, he has + EV, no ifs ands or buts.
      Comment
      • durito
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-03-06
        • 13173

        #4
        how big is your bankroll?
        Comment
        • Tomato
          SBR MVP
          • 01-29-09
          • 1251

          #5
          Originally posted by durito
          how big is your bankroll?
          Does it matter in this analysis?

          Hypothetically let's say Tomato's roll is 30 dimes.
          Comment
          • Ganchrow
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-28-05
            • 5011

            #6
            Originally posted by Tomato
            Does it matter in this analysis?

            Hypothetically let's say Tomato's roll is 30 dimes.
            I'm sure durito was inquiring as to the size of your bankroll relative to the bets in question.
            Comment
            • Tomato
              SBR MVP
              • 01-29-09
              • 1251

              #7
              Originally posted by Ganchrow
              I'm sure durito was inquiring as to the size of your bankroll relative to the bets in question.
              Tomato always bets 1% of his initial bankroll starting the season.
              Comment
              • Art Vandeleigh
                SBR MVP
                • 12-31-06
                • 1494

                #8
                Originally posted by Tomato
                Tomato also locked in at ARI +130 yesterday. Could have arbed it at -120, yet he let 'er ride! LOST!

                Why why why!?!? Should Tomato start arbing his bets, or simply take the 10-20% advantage he's getting with his wager and stick to his strategy?
                So when the line moves favorably for you, you would like to arb and take what amounts to around 0.05% of your bankroll as a sure profit.
                When the line moves against you, you allow 1% of your bankroll to be at risk in a disadvantageous situation.
                Doesn't sound like a recipe for long term success.
                Comment
                • Ganchrow
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-28-05
                  • 5011

                  #9
                  My Overbets and Line Changes Kelly Spreadsheet was created to answer just these sorts of question within a Kelly framework.
                  Comment
                  • BrandonLangFade
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 05-23-09
                    • 1

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh
                    So when the line moves favorably for you, you would like to arb and take what amounts to around 0.05% of your bankroll as a sure profit.
                    When the line moves against you, you allow 1% of your bankroll to be at risk in a disadvantageous situation.
                    Doesn't sound like a recipe for long term success.
                    .05% profit?

                    Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                    Type in -125 and +140 and tell me what percent comes up.

                    When Tomato arbs, he doesn't bet 1%. It's guaranteed profit. Why wouldn't he bet the max? That's stupid!
                    Comment
                    • Jaug
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-11-09
                      • 3087

                      #11
                      Best if you can let it ride, that way you don't have to pay juice to hedge. The deciding factor is whether or not you can bet with low juice when hedging. So if you have matchbook, pinny and alot of other books at you disposal then hedge.
                      Comment
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