Can I profit long term picking 40% winners?

[Mr. Peepers]

Guys,

I think I am like most handicappers in that I pick more losers than I do winners.

How can I make a long term profit while limiting risk? Using 2-5% of BR will slowly bleed me to death and Martingale system will bust me after 5 or 6 plays.

Any suggestions or ideas are appreciated.

Thank you in advance!

[Optional]

If you are picking ATS @ 40%, the reverse side of those picks would be an elite 60% hit rate.

You could really be closer to 50% than you think?

[Stallion]

Make sure the odds are at least +200

[vicshap]

I think I am like most handicappers in that I pick more losers than I do winners.
go Against your one best play of the day, RISKING 5% of your bankroll each day. one play only, each day. hope to go 4-3 each week on average, 57+ percent. no one can do better long-term.
How can I make a long term profit while limiting risk? Using 2-5% of BR will slowly bleed me to death and Martingale system will bust me after 5 or 6 plays.

Any suggestions or ideas are appreciated.

Thank you in advance!

go Against your best play of the day, Risking 5% of your bankroll. 1 play only each day. hope to go 4-3 each week on average, 57+ percent. no one can do better long-term.

[Mr. Peepers]

If you are picking ATS @ 40%, the reverse side of those picks would be an elite 60% hit rate.

You could really be closer to 50% than you think?

40% was more hypothetical then actual. The end result will be the same for someone that wins 40% or roughly 52% considering the juice and betting 5% of your bankroll.

I think fading one's own picks is tougher than one would think . Talk about a mind game!

[Mr. Peepers]

go Against your best play of the day, Risking 5% of your bankroll. 1 play only each day. hope to go 4-3 each week on average, 57+ percent. no one can do better long-term.

Have you had success going against your best play?

[vicshap]

more often than not, but only about 51.5 percent. it takes discipline, to the point of boredom. i have many more opinions about this topic, if anyone is interested.

[Optional]

40% was more hypothetical then actual. The end result will be the same for someone that wins 40% or roughly 52% considering the juice and betting 5% of your bankroll.

I think fading one's own picks is tougher than one would think . Talk about a mind game!

I agree.

Like the experiment that is affected by observation in science, you just can't fade yourself. I was more suggesting you probably weren't good (bad?) enough to hit 40% or 60% ATS in reality, it just probably feels that way.

[Lenny Zefflin]

ATS? Then no, obviously you can't win long-term at at a 40% clip. If I consistently hit 40% every year (which would be as rare as hitting 60) I would probably just do ten game parlays hoping my 40% could have better luck clustering up in streaks and hitting a big payday enough to keep me going. But I don't know. Sounds like 40 is just a bad run and you'll do better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Peepers, a few thoughts. Gonna echo the posts above:

1) How MANY plays produced the 40% stat? Hard to believe that you'll hit 40% (vs -110 lines) over hundreds of plays.

2) If that is the case, write down your REASONING for said plays.

3) If u find that 40% is your baseline...then you're on your way. Continue that logic and when it gets time to put in your bet...bet opposite. You may find that Contrarian logic is the way to go.

[dbartinbwgc]

In theory using Labby lines you could profit with above 33% win rate in the long run.

[HUY]

I think I am like most handicappers in that I pick more losers than I do winners.

No you don't. You just get paid less than even money.

[tsty]

No you don't. You just get paid less than even money.

Exactly. If we are talking in terms of closing lines in major markets then most people will be picking 50% or very close to it.

It's basically impossible to be hitting 40% on NBA closing lines etc

[tsty]

Guys,

I think I am like most handicappers in that I pick more losers than I do winners.

How can I make a long term profit while limiting risk? Using 2-5% of BR will slowly bleed me to death and Martingale system will bust me after 5 or 6 plays.

Any suggestions or ideas are appreciated.

Thank you in advance!

this honestly seems like a troll post to me but after reading so many posts on this forum I just don't know

[danshan11]

hitting 40% is irrelevant if you have an edge, do you have an edge? if you dont have an edge, 40% 45% 51% it dont matter it is just a matter of time till you are broke or you add more money to your BR