Looking for info/tutorial on building Monte Carlo model for game outcome probability

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  • swordlord
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-05-18
    • 5

    #36
    St.Louis Blues - Edmonton Oilers 64-16-20
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    • swordlord
      SBR Rookie
      • 12-05-18
      • 5

      #37

      0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
      0 0 8 9 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
      1 1 23 24 27 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
      2 12 30 53 36 17 10 0 0 0 0 0
      3 5 49 65 58 23 6 1 0 0 0 0
      4 15 42 50 51 27 6 1 0 0 0 0
      5 8 37 54 33 12 1 0 0 0 0 0
      6 6 17 38 31 8 4 1 0 0 0 0
      7 3 12 13 8 11 1 0 0 0 0 0
      8 1 0 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
      9 0 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
      10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
      Last edited by swordlord; 12-05-18, 06:00 AM.
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      • oilcountry99
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-29-10
        • 707

        #38
        Originally posted by swordlord
        Hello, i have done simulating models for predicting icehockey, football etc based on monte carlo in excel. Its pretty simple procedure. with this you can calculate 1X2, under/over, Spread etc.
        Are you still interested? Just let me know.

        First you need to calculate mean and standard deviation for both teams.
        Then use box-muller method https://www.statisticshowto.datascie...le-definition/ for generate randomized goals. Remove all negative numbers (if occurs) because goals are positive integers. I usually generate 10000 numbers.
        Now you can do your calculations in spreadsheet. Transform your numbers first into integers. Positive Goal-difference means home win and negative goal-difference means guest win. you can also delete all goal values from both teams over 7 because they are so rare.
        Yes I'm still interested, thanks for posting
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        • swordlord
          SBR Rookie
          • 12-05-18
          • 5

          #39
          Always calculate these also: Most important is area between percentile 25% to percentile 75%. You should use those values only when calculating odds for NBA or some other form of sports which has high number of points.
          • =AVERAGE
          • =STDEV
          • =MIN
          • =PERCENTILE.EXC(25 %)
          • =MEDIAN
          • =PERCENTILE.EXC(75 %)
          • =MAX
          • =COUNT
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          • oilcountry99
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 08-29-10
            • 707

            #40
            I have no idea what your above posts mean. box-muller method? What is that table you show? Looks like a poisson chart. Sorry for my ignorance and lack of math knowledge. I am most likely light years away from your level. LOL. I do appreciate your sharing and interest, but this is over my head. I'm interested just not quite sure where to begin with this.
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            • swordlord
              SBR Rookie
              • 12-05-18
              • 5

              #41
              Instead of generating randomized numbers with box-muller method you can do it just use randbetween (min-max) or rather use numbers between percentile25% to percentile75%
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