Hockey Reference Win Probabilities

[oilcountry99]

Does anyone know how Hockey Reference comes up with their win probabilities? They can be found on their main page at the right hand side under NHL Upcoming Games.

Has anyone tracked them for accuracy?

Thanks for any help.

[gdon44]

Haven't tracked them but it's based on the Vegas line much like they do for their football win probability.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/win_prob.htm

[oilcountry99]

I emailed them and they said it is based on there SRS (strength of schedule), sent me this link

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index4837.html?p=37

[gojetsgomoxies]

i would guess from their response that it's based on power ratings, which basically takes the standings and adjusts them for who you've played.

power rating predictions are often fairly close to the line on the game with at least 4 additional comments: 1) they are science but it's an art using them; 2) mismatched teams often don't behave close to power ratings. my experience is games are closer and lines reflect that; 3) power ratings are usually for whole season so far and team A may be playing better or worse now (vancouver worse now); 4) don't reflect injuries.