NBA FINALS: Evaluating props, player scores and such

[Ominous]

In trying to find values in middles and such Ive been looking briefly at the NBA finals player propositions, however I am currently at loss to exactuly how I should best approx the values/push frequencies.

I tried using poisson to approx player scores and end up with push freqencies at ~~7%/point around the line when the line is about 30. Somehow I have a feeling that this is way to high.

For instance, when you use poisson to approx quater, halftime or fulltime push freqencies in basketball the results are way to high compared to ganshrows stats or pinnacles costs of buying points.

Is poisson useful for any application such as this? What about lower props such as rebounds with lines at around 6-7?

Is there any other crude method of analysis that can prove useful?

Anyone have data or experience to indicate what push freqencies may be like?

[bleedblue]

In trying to find values in middles and such Ive been looking briefly at the NBA finals player propositions, however I am currently at loss to exactuly how I should best approx the values/push frequencies.

I tried using poisson to approx player scores and end up with push freqencies at ~~7%/point around the line when the line is about 30. Somehow I have a feeling that this is way to high.

For instance, when you use poisson to approx quater, halftime or fulltime push freqencies in basketball the results are way to high compared to ganshrows stats or pinnacles costs of buying points.

Is poisson useful for any application such as this? What about lower props such as rebounds with lines at around 6-7?

Is there any other crude method of analysis that can prove useful?

Anyone have data or experience to indicate what push freqencies may be like?

Poisson is a decent approximation for things that happen by ones, such as rebounds, assists, 3pt fgm, 3pt fga.

Data for push probabilities is easily available by importing game logs into excel, though you will have to smooth it out a bit.

[Ominous]

Thanks for the input.

Maybe Poisson isnt so horrible after all btw? If you have a player score prop you could possibly divide the line by two and then also devide the found push freq by 2 to approx the push/score.
Anyhow, I didnt end up middeling and I was instead looking for lines that deviated from matchbook and the market as a whole.

If anyone else did extensive analysis yesterday I would appriciate if that person could tell me if he thinks my bets were good or not.

Anyhow I had
D. Howard U15,5 Rebounds -110
D. Howard +12 points > K. Bryant -117
Ariza O9,5 points -105

[Justin7]

Thanks for the input.

Maybe Poisson isnt so horrible after all btw? If you have a player score prop you could possibly divide the line by two and then also devide the found push freq by 2 to approx the push/score.
Anyhow, I didnt end up middeling and I was instead looking for lines that deviated from matchbook and the market as a whole.

If anyone else did extensive analysis yesterday I would appriciate if that person could tell me if he thinks my bets were good or not.

Anyhow I had
D. Howard U15,5 Rebounds -110
D. Howard +12 points > K. Bryant -117
Ariza O9,5 points -105

Good idea. My next vid is on this topic.

[Ominous]

How do you guys think player performances in the last game should affect the expected play time and performance of next game (if at all)?

Most offshore books seem to post the same prop lines as last game more or less, and while its tempting to bet the same shit as you did last game I was wondering if it can be optimized.

For instance, Ariza has totally smashed his line of 9,5 both tuesday (13) and today (16?).
D. Howard did really poor and half way through 4th quater he only had 11 or so with line being 21,5.
Kobe just hit his line with miracle overtime.
Gasol failed his line horribly by RT and with 49 playing minutes he still only had 16 with line at 19,5.
Turkoglu did quite well with 25 p scored vs 16.5 point line.

Either way, What about avging performacne and weighing 1/3 from playoffs 1/3 from regular season and 1/3 from series vs Orlando? Or should you just ignore the performance in the last 4 games alltogehter (with the exception of thier inclusion in the playoff stats?)

What about playing time. Im not to experience with sports and I do not know if 49 min playtime today will influence how long the coach can field the players on sunday? Is this factor irrelevant?

[bleedblue]

Either way, What about avging performacne and weighing 1/3 from playoffs 1/3 from regular season and 1/3 from series vs Orlando? Or should you just ignore the performance in the last 4 games alltogehter (with the exception of thier inclusion in the playoff stats?)

What about playing time. Im not to experience with sports and I do not know if 49 min playtime today will influence how long the coach can field the players on sunday? Is this factor irrelevant?

A weighted average is the way to go, but you can't weigh this series that heavily. The sample just isn't big enough. In fact if you are to weigh this series at all, it should be because you see something in the matchups that indicates a reason for a slightly better/worse than average performance.

Ariza has crushed the past 2 games cuz he is shooting better and getting more minutes than he did in the first 2. But it also has something to do with the defensive schemes ORL is throwing at LA.

Playing time shouldn't be much of a factor with 2 off days in between.

Hope this helps a little...

[Ominous]

Yeah thank you

As i mostly bet sports and dont watch them im not all to familiar with how that kind of stuff works

As for using the series or not it was precisly that I was wondering, if the playstyle that evolves between the two teams will allow certain players to produce more points and others to less to any relevant extent. Maybe I just shouldnt use it at all -