Winning Without Capping

**oilcountry99** · 08-14-17, 03:27 PM

I'm very interested in beating the books by using lines only....just haven't found a way yet. Look forward to your thread, good luck.

**koreatine** · 08-14-17, 03:58 PM

Yes. This thread is open to any comments or questions. Please be constructive in the criticism. This is how I do things. It's not heralded to be the best or only way to bet using lines.

**biggie12** · 08-14-17, 10:00 PM

you will never beat nba off line moves but good luck 60% off 30-40 game sample size

**koreatine** · 08-14-17, 10:43 PM

Actually, it was several hundred but all good.

All opinions are welcomed

**Sobob99** · 08-15-17, 05:23 AM

Following. I'm curious about your strategy

**Kiddpokerr** · 08-15-17, 05:45 AM

Lol, schools opened early this year...

**Bsims** · 08-15-17, 11:05 AM

I agree that there is some potential merit in handicapping by line movement. I think the lines tell us about the relative strength of the 2 teams involved and the likely outcome of the game. I mentioned in another post that I had done some analysis on line movements a few years back and found some opportunities, Koreatine, I have a couple of questions.

Do you just pick the wager based on visual observation of the line movements, or do you have a rigorous model for doing this?

If you have a model, were you able to back test it?

**koreatine** · 08-15-17, 12:48 PM

Yeah. I was using Sportsinsights for a while. They have a program called Betlabs that basically allows you to enter criteria and you can back track.

What I've introduced to the forum right now though, is also a system you can back track, but that'd have to be done manually.

I've started a new thread in the MLB forum introducing the "manipulated games" model. I've been tracking that religiously since about mid June. I have some cool stuff on spreadsheets I'd be happy to share with you that date back to the beginning of the season and discuss, if it's something you're interested in.

The model in the MLB forum revolves around heavily manipulated games, where the books have stripped the dog of almost all if not all of its value, so you're actually getting worse value on a team that's supposed to be probable to lose. Which means you're getting better than projected value on the favorite. It's one thing to bet on a favorite/public favorite with negative ROI, but to bet on non public favorites/underdogs with negative ROI, think from the books perspective. There's got to be a reason those teams open so low. I always use the saying "they have no business opening that low" talking about the dog. But let's face it, these books know exactly what they're doing and why they're doing it. I've also heard most people say "well it can't be that easy." Well technically it's not that easy, because how much of the public is spotting that? It's not about beating a few smart guys, the books only care about beating the public. Their goal is to create as much lopsided action as possible and then clean house. Games like the Super Bowl, that are so heavily bet, sure the public has influence and they wanna keep as much even action as possible, but for regular season sports games, they go for the throat. They are super super bankrolled and can afford the short term swings when the public is right, knowing in the long run they'll make it all back and more.

They're basically what most people deem "trap games".

These plays, that have RLM with them are strong. I won't say what they're hitting publicaly but I'd be happy to show you a spreadsheet of the actual results.

I then rely on the line moves to give me the information I need to deem them actual plays or not.

It's not just simply betting every team with a RLM or anything like that.

**biggie12** · 08-15-17, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by koreatine

Actually, it was several hundred but all good.

All opinions are welcomed

posts these reults for me please

**Goatman** · 08-15-17, 07:46 PM

Following. This sounds interesting.

**KVB** · 08-15-17, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by koreatine

... But let's face it, these books know exactly what they're doing and why they're doing it...

Ah yes, another poster who gets it.

I swear this isn't my ghost...lol.

Welcome to the first steps of market analysis korea.

Good Luck.

**koreatine** · 08-16-17, 06:52 AM

Thanks guys and yeah KVB, this is perfect for me. It not only forces me to bet "systematically" instead of with my heart, but it's pretty nice to get similar results that I was getting while capping, spending 5-10% of the time it took me to cap.

I'm not sure how many people will ever buy into believing that you can win off data alone, but I've seen long term track records, have had success personally, and the data really just exploits certain spots where the market's "off" When I mean by "off" 90% of the time it's purposely "off" far. From an actual mistake, even though they do happen every so often because at the end of the day lines makers are human too.

You'll notice certain teams show up more than not, and this is mainly just due to how many of the manipulated games my system exploits has to do a lot with public perception and the lines makers taking advantage of short term success bad teams are having, or bad short term runs good teams are having. Either way it's the same thing. If a bad teams in a good spot vs a public favorite. Just lower the opening line value, giving the bad team no value, and the favorite more value, get your lopsided bets and laugh to the bank. The public falls for it EVERY time. Even if the sharps do hammer the game back the other way, it "might" just be bet back up to the amount the game "should" have opened up at anyway so they really lose no value even if the square side hits because they opened up the line so low.

If you have line knowledge, I mean "real" line knowledge, you can win at anything.

**TheMoneyShot** · 08-16-17, 11:00 AM

What's the catch Korea?

I mean... you are from Covers and came to SBR? Why? Why did you vanish from Covers? Or did you get banned from Covers?

Story seems tilted.

**koreatine** · 08-16-17, 11:16 AM

My posts were getting a few thousand views a day and somebody recommended using Twitter to try to reach my audience directly and avoid the trolls, so I made an account and posted a handle and they banned me. Never did anything malicious, never trolled, I was good for their site but apparently they thought I was trying to steal their traffic, idk. Never got to give my say, they just assumed what they assumed and that was that.

No catch, just a friend of a long time member here. He just said you guys were more polite and I should come on here and post. I think he writes reviews or something for SBR.

Sorry if it seems "tilted" I was just genuinely excited to post again lol. Never tried searching for another forum after the Covers episode myself.

**biggie12** · 08-16-17, 03:28 PM

seriosuly dude post those stats for me i would love for you to proove me wrong being an avid bettor of nba for around 8 years now

**Wohlford** · 08-16-17, 05:21 PM

You can probably pull this off consistently with very low juice. Like, overnight 5 cent baseball lines with a 1.5% house hold.

Without greatly reduced juice, where the House holds 4.5%+, I think finding these edges would be extremely difficult.

**usernametaken** · 08-16-17, 06:41 PM

Nice of you to share with us Korea.

**koreatine** · 08-16-17, 10:32 PM

In response to biggie.

I was betting reverse line moves against a certain % of the money. Not the ticket %, the money.

Once I am allowed to PM, we can talk about that.

**KVB** · 08-17-17, 03:38 PM

SI has been touting that betting strategy for a while now. They have plenty of stats biggie. It seems like a week wouldn't go by where those buys were sending me emails about these results.

Volume is an important factor in the final results as well.

The information on the money isn't always that reliable but it's not the information, it's how you use it.

None of this is new and represents a basic first step in line analysis.

Remember, if you know why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes then you will go a long way towards winning long term.

Adding successful, market beating conclusions (handicapping outside of line analysis) to the process will also go a long way towards helping understand what's happening with the markets here.

**koreatine** · 08-17-17, 10:13 PM

Well said KVB.

**JPTerriers8** · 08-21-17, 11:42 PM

What's your twitter?

**b1slickguy** · 08-22-17, 07:58 AM

Good luck, Koreatine.

**koreatine** · 08-22-17, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Good luck, Koreatine.

Thanks.

**koreatine** · 08-22-17, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by JPTerriers8

What's your twitter?

I don't do the whole Twitter thing anymore. It was becoming too much of a hassle. I was in a betting group where I had to try to send out plays by text, do the whole tweeting thing while trying to place my own bets while paying attention to lines and it got to be too much where I was actually missing bets.
By the time the games start a fair amount of time I'm not even home, and it's impossible to do all that off a phone, or while you're playing poker, on a tablet.

**tsty** · 08-25-17, 11:34 AM

Capping? Definite it for me

**DABOOK** · 08-27-17, 12:43 PM

Steamed dogs in baseball are a decent angle. I have seen guys win with that for extended periods. But for long term profits you really need to play before the move. If team A is +170 Tuesday morning and +140 tuesday afternoon it is certainly worth a look at why. I have seen these games played consistantly for a lotta years. The good thing is it doesnt require a lot of time to read that movement. Somene else who is sharp and respected by books spent alotta time capping and bet +170 heavy. You just following his work. Too easy but at least you not spending hours crunching capping. Time is money so they say.

**MaddyMax** · 08-28-17, 10:55 PM

Aren't you the FleaHotel guy who tried to go tout after having a nice little run but got burned when you went tout on Twitter, then closed the accoutn and now new model?

**A4K** · 09-13-17, 01:18 PM

And? Will you be posting that data any time soon? Thanks in advance

**asiagambler** · 09-22-17, 03:09 PM

Please share with us how to do this because I spend way too much time handicapping

**trytrytry** · 09-27-17, 01:43 PM

this nut job posted all of this and then posted here at SBR for 1 day or so in august?

LOL

**RangeFinder** · 09-27-17, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

this nut job posted all of this and then posted here at SBR for 1 day or so in august?

LOL

From his posts it looked like to me he was trying to find an easy way too profits without spending a lot of time analyzing

Its not a good formula as this stuff takes research and hard work

**jose21_us** · 10-21-17, 09:59 PM

Another one bites the dust...