TIP---keep in mind the number 7 in the NBA........

**Pokerjoe** · 05-31-09, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

anyone that buys half pts in basketball is putting a gun to his head.. If you are playing at pinny and are playing into an 8 cent line in nba.. why would you buy a half pt and now play into a 10 cent line for?

your hurting your ROI.. it's silly.. always play into the real #, as you are not hurting yourself as much.. by buying that half pt, you are hurting yourself.. you are paying a bigger price.

sorry boys, but only suckers buy half pts.. pinny loves it when you people buy half pts, no matter what the line is.. and games that are common on landing on a specific #, well guess what, you will pay more to move it half a pt..

for example, buying a half pt around the 1 doesn't cost you much, but the more common #'s, you will pay more..

no matter what, when you buy a half pt, you are costing yourself money..

I don't think it's buying points that raises the issue. Most of the time, the decision involves choosing between different spreads/prices at different books.

For example, if I can get +7 -105 at 5Dimes, or +7.5 -111 at another book, which is better? That, to me, is where Ganchrow's calculator comes in handy.

From your own followup post, I know you think the same way. So all I'm really saying is that the statement "never buy a 1/2 point" should be amended to "never buy the first 1/2 point for 10 cents."

Buying a 1/2 point, by shopping at other books, can sometimes be profitable. And buying, I think it the 5th half-point, for 10 cents, is profitable. Meaning, if you can choose between -7 -110 and -9 -140 and-9.5 -150, that 1/2 point from -9 to -9.5 for 10 more cents might be profitable. (above numbers for illustration purposes only).

**smitch124** · 09-24-09, 06:13 PM

bump

**james4512** · 09-24-09, 06:28 PM

FH you are a sharp for this comment... it really is an unwritten rule. Kind of like in football when the spread is 6.5 you think your in the clear by that .5 really means something

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-24-09, 06:55 PM

Right, James. There are nearly as many touchdowns in the NBA as in the NFL. Good post. Great thread.

**durito** · 09-24-09, 06:56 PM

I love how people will continue to believe something even after being presented data that completely rejects their hypothesis.

Want to buy pts in the NBA? Find a book that will still let you buy 3 for -170

**Wrecktangle** · 09-24-09, 07:11 PM

Another good example of why I don't post info in public forums...

**skrtelfan** · 11-07-09, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Another good example of why I don't post info in public forums...

Yes, I was liking the misinformation in this thread until the end.

**BubbleBobble** · 11-09-09, 06:34 AM

Another good example why the books clean up in the end.
The 7 doesn't mean shit in the NBA lol. And it´s very easy to prove, as you just have to look at the Pinnacle prices for buying/selling points.

**obamaismyuncle** · 11-09-09, 08:06 AM

**durito** · 12-06-09, 01:10 PM

tell us some more fishhead

**Fishhead** · 12-06-09, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

is a very, very key number, especially in the playoffs. Second only to the number 2.

Tonights line is currently at 7.5, thus if you like ORL, make sure you and try and get at least that number, as you will be losing significant value if you only take +7 or less.

In fact, the number 7 in the playoffs is ALMOST worth buying on and off of for ten cents..........and in some instances I actually do this if it presents the best number in the world to me.

Keep in mind the word ALMOST here folks.

Can someone take a stab at what the number 7 is worth, in terms of cents, in the playoffs on games with totals of 185 or less???

I LOVE THE NBA FOR BETTING!!!

**BGS 9.5** · 12-06-09, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by durito

tell us some more fishhead

Please do not

**Dark Horse** · 03-31-10, 08:44 AM

Using a radius for push frequencies in the NBA can be misleading. It disregards motivational markers in the minds of players (such as DD lead, and lead < 5 pts).

NBA last night. I played SAC +7 -102 and IND -6.5 +102. Pushed at 7. Tellingly, for those interested in the type of motivations that factor in, the Pacers were up 15 pts with 3 minutes to play... General idea: once a game is decided, the losing team is usually allowed a number of free baskets. As long as they don't come too close (under 5), they are often allowed to get below double digits.

I went back over the current NBA season to see how the pushes were distributed (closing lines). Just this season, so small sample size:

1 pt <= 2x
2 pts <= 4x (including All Star game)
5 pts <= 2x
6 pts <= 5x
7 pts <= 6x
8 pts <= 2x
10 pts <= 1x
12 pts <= 1x

There were 23 pushes, and 11 of them (48%) landed on 6 and 7. And 15 of 23 (65%) landed on 5, 6, 7, 8. No radius. The 1 and 2 pts are for closer, more competitive games. Another category. This doesn't tell the number of games that tipped off at these spreads, so I wouldn't read too much into it. But if you have no opinion on the game and can get the middle or hedge at no or low juice ...

**blueghost** · 03-31-10, 09:17 AM

good post DARK always see losing team getting garbage baskets at the end that just to get back door cover