70% SU winners in the NBA

[dogman]

If someone hit 70% straight up winners(all games) in the NBA would it be +EV if he bet the ML on every game.

I know without knowing the prices of the winners and losses it would be hard to determine but if you were to take a guess, would that person be ahead or behind?

[u21c3f6]

My guess is that he will be behind. To win at such a rate he would have to wager mostly on large favorites and most probably -EV wagers.

Joe.

[Ganchrow]

My guess is that he will be behind. To win at such a rate he would have to wager mostly on large favorites and most probably -EV wagers.

Joe.

The OP had specified betting on all games.

Still, a 70% SU hit rate is about what one would have realized in the NBA betting all favorites and flipping a coin for PK's over the 1990/91 through 2008/09 regular seasons (69.6% to be more exact).

As such, my reaction based solely on the information given would nevertheless be the same as Joe's -- namely that a 70% straight-up NBA hit rate over all games would more likely than not be unprofitable.

[Peep]

Obviously perhaps, but none the less pertinent...

"It would depend one what price he was getting on the moneyline".

[BigCap]

Not enough information to determine a fair answer. Assuming OP always picked the favorite (and 99.9% of the time there is a favorite) is probably a bad assumption.