What is the EV of my bracket right now?

[ljump12]

.. and how can I realize it?

I'm 2nd place in the 5d pool... $14,825 winner take all.

I have Gonzaga over UNC in the finals.. I've calculated that I win if Gonzaga beats UNC in the finals, or South Carolina beats UNC in the finals. Any other result (Oregon makes finals, UNC wins finals etc) is a loss.

Someone care to calculate the EV? I'm guessing its around $6k right now.

I'd like to structure it so I can win ~10k if Gonzaga or SC wins, but realize a bit if another result happens.

[Optional]

Oregon +180 v UNC bet $2231.91

UNC +141 for National Champ bet $2593.09


Gives you exactly $10,000 if Zags or SC win and $1424.35 if Oregon make final or UNC win it.

[ljump12]

thatll do it!

[swishbg]

Here's how I would calculate the EV of your bracket. There are 8 possible final outcomes (1: Gonzaga beats UNC, 2: Gonzaga beats Oregon, etc). 5Dimes has prop bets on all of those outcomes. The 2 outcomes that are winners for you are Gonzaga over UNC and SC over UNC. The payout odds of those 2 outcomes, according to 5D, are +341 and +1419. If you add up all the odds for those 2, plus the other 6 outcomes and calculate the vig-free probability for each outcome, the probability of one of your 2 winning scenarios occurring is: (19.5% + 5.7% = 25.2%). So, the EV of your bracket right now is 0.252 * $14,825 = $3,732.10

[ljump12]

Great explanation... thank you.