Experienced SDQL people

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  • JTrain
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-29-13
    • 551

    #1
    Experienced SDQL people
    What is your long-term winning percentage betting games based on SDQL trends?

    What do you look for in query results that determine a good system?
  • evo34
    SBR MVP
    • 11-09-08
    • 1032

    #2
    Start broad (huge sample). Narrow down only accoriding to logical filters. Pay attention to edge decay. If things don't look good over the past 12 mos., you need to consider the fact that the angle may be dead. Assume that a 10% backtested edge will be less than 2% going forward (and that's an optimistic scenario, assuming you have not over-fitted anything).
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    • gojetsgomoxies
      SBR MVP
      • 09-04-12
      • 4222

      #3
      i'm thinking you are looking for 54% or so win rate in reality - consistent with prior poster. maybe a little higher on less volume, but then less volume usually equals overfitting.

      the one i am always grappling with is volaitlity of win rate.... like some of the bowl systems you did were excellent but then one year they go 2-9........ so how do you use that system in reality?
      Comment
      • evo34
        SBR MVP
        • 11-09-08
        • 1032

        #4
        When I say "huge sample," I certainly don't mean 100 games. I.e., bowl systems better be 80% or better to even merit a sniff.
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