Kelly calculator

**u21c3f6** · 01-05-17, 12:15 PM

Yes. Select: # Independent Events and in the next drop down box select: 10. Then enter your data below.

Joe.

**olddirtyfighter** · 01-05-17, 12:37 PM

Thanks Joe.

But that way I get my stake divided between single bets and parlays. If 4 or 5 bets have much bigger edge than others, I got funny results where Kelly suggests that 99% of money bet should be on parlays. I just want to get right info what is optimal to bet if I use only sinle bets.

**u21c3f6** · 01-05-17, 12:41 PM

Below the button: Calculate Kelly, make sure Stakes for parlays of size is set to 1 and not all.

Joe.

**u21c3f6** · 01-05-17, 12:42 PM

Are you using this calculator?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/kelly-calculator/

**olddirtyfighter** · 01-05-17, 04:57 PM

Yes. Problem is I'm building new model and some results are like 90% win probability for +100 bet which is ridiculous but I want to see how model performs when Kelly betting. In the end even though total stake for all bets is 99% of bankroll, only 0,05% is on singles, and everything else is on 2-10 parlays.

in fact, this is what I'm looking for, but unfortunately link in Ganch's post doesn't work.

Simultaneous Event Kelly Calculator--Is there a bug in it? - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/211246-simultaneous-event-kelly-calculator-there-bug.html

Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math

**Division** · 03-05-17, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by olddirtyfighter

Of course, I know what is my edge on every bet compared to odds.

You think you know, its not an exact science.

If you're wrong you will bet too much and end up losing long term.

Imagine being wrong with 5 simultaneous bets and losing 80% of your bankroll in a couple of hours.

I hope this is a theoretical exercise for you and you are not considering doing this?

A full Kelly stake is far too high in practice. You have a 33% chance of having your bankroll before doubling it which is a recipe for disaster.