closing number

[tbiala]

ok im sure this is on here somewhere4 but i figured would be easier to just repost.

i am quoting this from another post



Originally Posted by LT Profits
Brady,

I am afraid it is not that simple. Using an average midpoint ONLY works for Pick'ems (-104/+104, -105/+105, -110/+110).

In this particluar case, the No Vig Price is calclated as follows:

Cubs implied -148 = 59.68% (148/248)
Marlins implied +128 = 43.86% (100/228)

So:

59.68/(59.68+43.86) = 57.6%
43.86/(59.68+43.86) = 42.4%

No Vig Line = 57.6/42.4 = +/-136.1

(How was that Ganch? )





how do you figure this out????? is there a formula for excel that will do it no matter what the juice is?? where does the 59.68% come from and where does the 42.4% come from. how do you calculate this???

[LT Profits]

where does the 59.68% come from and where does the 42.4% come from. how do you calculate this???[/I]

Actually, the conversion is given in my post.

A -148 favorite should win 148 out of 248 times, so 148/248 = 59.68%
A +128 dog should win 100 out of 228 times, so 100/228 = 43.86%

As for doing it in Excel, it is very simple for a head-to-head match with only two options (i.e., no Draw option).

Lets use cells A1 through C2. Column A will will be our two inputs in fractonal form, with the favorite in A1 and the dog in A2. More on that in a second.

Columns B and C will be constant. Column B will calculate the no-vig expected win rate and Column C will convert that rate into a line. The results in C1 and C2 should be reciprocals of each other and is the no-vig line.


So if we always put the fave in A1 and the dog in A2, enter the following in Column B:

In B1, put =A1/(A1+A2)
in B2, put =A2/(A1+A2)

And in Column C, enter the following:

In C1, put -B1/(1-B1)
In C2, put =(1-B2)/B2


So for a real example, let's say a game is -125/+105

You would put 125/225 in A1 and 100/205 in A2. If you entered the formulas in B and C right, you should get no-vig line of +/-113.9

[Ganchrow]

Or you could just download my simple, easy-to-use, nearly all inclusive
The US2PROB() function calculates implied probability from US odds. So -=US2PROB(-148) yields 59.68%, while =US2PROB(+128) yields 43.86%,

Cell A1: -148
Cell A2: +128

To determine the unbiased no-vig market line, use the =US2FAIR() array function. =US2FAIR(A1:A2) yields a fair value on the fave of -136.065.

[tbiala]

L t profits thanks!!
Ganchrow, I figured ur formulas had a way to calculate but I still don't know how to use most of em. I'm workin on it tho. Thanlks guys

[tbiala]

Another question,

How would u do this for pointspread lines?
Ie:

Team a: -3 -110
Team b +3 -110

How do u figure this, n how do u know what's better -3 -110 or -3.5 100 or -2.5 -118 and so on...

Thanks

[byronbb]

Another question,

How would u do this for pointspread lines?
Ie:

Team a: -3 -110
Team b +3 -110

How do u figure this, n how do u know what's better -3 -110 or -3.5 100 or -2.5 -118 and so on...

Thanks

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