CBB 1H Correlation

[jgemma1]

Any have data/experience with correlated parlays on first halves in college bball?

I know there is no positive correlation on full game between heavy favorites and over, but the reasoning for that would be slowed pace when a team gains a large lead. That factor would not seem to apply in a first half.

Any historical data for this seems impossible to find so I'm struggling to determine a threshold to test. Thinking spread > 20% of total...

[Waterstpub87]

Any have data/experience with correlated parlays on first halves in college bball?

I know there is no positive correlation on full game between heavy favorites and over, but the reasoning for that would be slowed pace when a team gains a large lead. That factor would not seem to apply in a first half.

Any historical data for this seems impossible to find so I'm struggling to determine a threshold to test. Thinking spread > 20% of total...

I would be surprised if the first assumption is true. It is hard to believe that a -22 favorite is less likely to cover in a game with a total of 150 vs 120. Haven't tested this though.

This would be relatively easy to test. Load sbrodds into a spreadsheet. Scrape the 1st half lines, create a formula to determine side and total. Repeat. Probs take a few days to test. Easier if you do something more complex than excel.

[arrgy]

I dont have lots of hard data, but it has been my experience that good teams generally cover a large first half spread, then cruise. Sat Duke was -11 vs Penn State, without 3 players Duke managed to cover the 1Half by 12, but couldn't cover the full spread of -19. I always did well with just first half bets like this.