anyone try these exotic types? Teasers, Pleasers, Parlays, i like the idea of the teaser particularly where you can adjust the point spread sounds like a great idea!
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its a terrible idea. except in some limited circumstances.Comment -
why terrible?Comment -
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this went all day without a suggestion to just google Wong?
at least tell the guy to never cross zero with a teaser. anytime you can cross over 3, 4 and 7 with one teaser, do it. of course some books adjust their lines and juice them (lookin at you 5Dimes) to avoid getting smacked with sharps and profitable teasers. (oh my, did i just give out a clue as to identifying profitable scenarios?!). do research on which teasers hit at higher rates and find the best price on those teasers. remember 6 pts at +100? man, those were the days!!
and i'll tell you i've had some success lately on 4 and 5 tmr 11.5 pointers. usually 2 sides and 2,3 totals spread over the entire nfl week.
anyway, look up Sanford Wong and you will be off and runningComment -
Let me see if im getting this right, maybe some of you other stat guys can help me understand if im off base. I have this automated strategy where the strategy accurately predicts the NFL scores about 65% of the time but the variance is very low, most of the other scores are off by only a few points so if i use a teaser win rate is more like 90 to 95%. A teaser simply moves the scores about 1 standard deviation away from the actual scores so thats why the win rate is so much higher theoretically right? A strategy with a 90 to 95% win rate would be a lot better but because it has a lower standard deviation of results right or is that off base? Also with the teaser the actual win rate would be around 61% to 65% although youd never suffer that many losses given the actual win rate is about 90 to 95%? Correct? My idea is to combine teasers of each of my original picks with each other, for example 10 games would result in 100 teaser bets.Comment