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This isn't the forum for system tracking. Use something like pickmonitor.com if you wish to track a system properly.Comment -
No problem at all. My intentions were not to post picks and track them, was simply posting them for someone who asked.
As for the system: I've won 5 of 7 games in Asia right now, one of them I'm trailing by 3 runs in the 8th. Hell, 5 for 7 is fine for me!
With that said, I'll abandon this thread, it doesn't seem like anyone has looked in to a system similar to this or is willing tohelp me delelop it. Solo-show for me now!
Good luck everyone.Comment -
I took a look at this yesterday and have tried to put together MLB run numbers with averages for 1-25 games to see if any patterns exist.
I've noticed there are some positive results when taking each team's 15 game average and comparing it to their 3/5 game average. Especially when you can match up similar teams in the same profile.
I was wondering what pct you are looking for as a trigger to play a team or game over/under. ThanksComment -
Hi Rip,
I was using 15MA's under 3 or 5MA's, similar to what you are looking at. Always (or almost always using) multiples of three because of series. What I've noticed is, the system has some legs but you need to use common sense and baseball judgement. If all signs are a go for the Padres beating SF in a Bumgarner Rea matchup, you might want to think twice about taking it. You see where I'm going.
I am a huge fan of trading naked FX charts, which uses a crapload of common sense. The same thing with something like this. I use a similar approach here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-plays-p7.html
Hope this helped and feel free to keep this thread going if you'd like to take over!
Cheers,
TTComment -
Looking over the data I have, without a ton of back testing, I'm going to focus mainly on game totals as opposed to betting a certain team. I'm finding games that teams are on a similar cycle to be more successful rather than if 1 team is exceeding/lagging behind expectations.
(Although I haven't had a chance to see if those teams are outperforming their specific run total for those games)
I have a pretty solid MLB totals model so I'm hoping adding these numbers will help me find even more value. Again, it's a lot of common sense but I may be able to make my number sharper by adjusting it on game day based on the averages (15/3/6 games)
Adjusting the game total will also give added value to the 1st inning runs scored that you've mentioned. I checked the link out above, great job with those.
I'll post more info once the 2nd half gets going and post some of the over/unders that look solid based on the averages.Last edited by RipVanWinkle; 07-12-16, 10:13 AM.Comment -
3 games where both teams "fit" the same increased/decreased run production from 3 games vs last 15 average. Not sure how it will work with the break but I'll post anything that generates for the next week or so to track the results.
1 game was this afternoon and showed Cubs/Rangers UNDER 8.5. Final 6-0 good start. Texas had averaged 15 runs per game (combined last 3 before break). Cubs had average game totals of almost 14 per game. Compare those 2 numbers with their last 15 moving average and it triggered a notice for an under.
Other 2 games that both teams have the same situation.
St. Louis/Miami Over 8
Minnesota/Cleveland Under 8.5
St. Louis game has shown under money all day so we'll see how the over works out. Would prefer 9 on Min/Clev but worth tracking to see how it does regardless.Comment -
All 3 games hit yesterday. I wasn't, and I'm still not sure, how the All-Star break would affect the teams. It's interesting looking at the averages that about 20 games ago the league was averaging about 1 more run a game. It's steadily declined to below the league season average over the last few games.
I wonder if anyone plays the grand salami daily total and what the results have been for the last 20 days of MLB. I'll try and look it up later today. Just by looking at the averages it would seem that the OVER did well for a decent stretch and the now the numbers are steadily going the other way.
Saturday games that fit.
Over 8 San Diego/SF
Under 9 Cleveland/Minnesota
Both totals juiced in the direction of the numbers. (-115/-120)Comment -
Thanks. I appreciate you starting the thread. Made me think about more things when analyzing MLB totals. I think there's some potential to these averages. (Although definitely needs more data/testing) I need more time to take a look at single teams that are showing a particular profile as well. Meaning if just 1 team in a match up has "over/under" as my trigger. May be an opportunity just to play their run total for the game. I hope to have more time this week to track a couple more things.
Last night 1 win, 1 push.
Sunday 4 games fit. All overs. A couple against top tier pitchers in Scherzer and Cueto.
- Over Pittsburgh/Washington 8
- Over San Diego/SF 7.5
- Over Baltimore/TB 8
- Over CWS/LAA (no total posted yet. If 8.5 or less it fits over)Comment -
You might want to open a thread in the baseball betting part of the forum in order to track. I've been told to not post picks in this subforum. Otherwise, great work.
As for toptier pitchers, I think there stats are already calculated in to the line. What we're trying to do is find an edge and the MA approach might be a nice little edge...Comment -
I'd love to see a tracking version of this forum. I love the technical analysis that TT and RipVW are putting into this.
Nice work guys.Comment -
Absolutely. I just haven't had time to track individual team totals. The games that are generating plays, that I'm using, are showing both teams in the same subset. So if you liked 1 team more than the other, in a particular game, the team total would be an option.
I'm getting more teams daily that are showing "over/under" I'm just using games if both teams fit that category. For example the Red Sox have showed OVER the last 2 days but the Yankees haven't. They've played over their team total. However when looking over other teams that have fit OVER they didn't exceed their run total.
Ideally I'd like to track each team that qualifies each day even if they don't match up with another similar team. They may be doing well also but it needs to be tracked further.Comment -
Hey TT do you see this system working in other sports?Comment -
Awesome, please post a link in this thread. i am subscribed to this one and don't wan't to miss the new one.
I'll be on vacation for two weeks, but when I get back, I'll focus more time on this system and see if we can combine our thoughts in order to make it even better.Comment -
Here's the link to the MLB totals tracking post in MLB forum
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