A little Pythagorean help please

[callendana]

I understand that the Pythagorean expectation projects the actual wins a team will rack up for the season and this will also give you a teams expected winning percentage for the entire season.

What I don't understand is how to use Pythagorean to project a score on a game by game bases. Am I missing something here? Any help would be greatly appriciated. I have been racking my brain plowing through sabermetric books for day's.

Thanks

[Waterstpub87]

I don't know what you mean, but maybe this is the answer:

It isn't predicting score, it is predicting winning %.

Taken simply, say that you had projected runs for the season of team A at 600, and team B at 550. So team A scores approximately 3.7 runs a game and team by scores 3.39 runs a game.

3.7^2/(3.7^2+3.39^2)= 54.36% of winning.

Note: This is not going to help you to generate any edge betting baseball.

[callendana]

Note: This is not going to help you to generate any edge betting baseball.[/QUOTE]

Thank You. As of now I am just watching games and learning the rosters

Could You point me in a direction that would generate an edge in betting baseball. Not asking for a hand out, just a little nudge in the right direction.

[Waterstpub87]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/

http://www.fangraphs.com/

Start reading

[callendana]

Thank You, and may you have a prosperous baseball betting season.

[pavyracer]

3^2 +4^2=5^2

Use it to draw or mark 90 degree angles without a square edge ruler.

[QuantumLeap]

3^2 +4^2=5^2

Use it to draw or mark 90 degree angles without a square edge ruler.

Congratulations pavy, you've got a brain!

[gdon44]

Once you get an expected winning % from pyth you can use Bill James' log5 formula to compare the two teams. It won't give you a score as waterspub mentions but it gives you a win probability based on the two teams. Here's a link to his explanation and how it can be used in different situations.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_log5_method_etc_etc_etc_/