Opening Lines vs Closing Lines (equity movement)

**scottgodson1985** · 03-03-16, 01:26 PM

closing odds are more relevant to win %,, than opening odds. I doubt the discrepancy is very large thou depending on the sport

**Waterstpub87** · 03-03-16, 02:32 PM

If you believe betting markets to be efficient, closing odds will be closer to the true underlying unknown probabilities.

**statnerds** · 03-08-16, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

If you believe betting markets to be efficient, closing odds will be closer to the true underlying unknown probabilities.

what he said.

and if opening lines were accurately priced there would be no market.

**Miz** · 03-12-16, 09:38 AM

closing odds are more accurate. if you test a model you develop it usually does better against opening lines than against closing lines. There are some rare exceptions though

**brodie** · 03-12-16, 12:53 PM

I think its funny that people still buy that shet. I truly dont believe the lines that they show US adjust accordingly tovthe money being placed down. I find that at least 7/10 times the opening line is more accurate than the closing. Im not talking basketball or other referee controlled sports, but like tennis/mma/hockey I find thatv the opening line tells you a lot more about a teams chance to win than the closing. But every line movement is different, some are legit and some are put in place to try to fool you. Im talking online betting more so than betting in Vegas

Truth be told vegas knows more often than not if an underdog has a good shot at winning. They just feed us the line we expect to see

**Miz** · 03-12-16, 02:01 PM

the closing lines are nearly always more efficient (harder to succeed against) than opening lines. I've experienced it first hand, many times, across many sports with massive sample sizes. I bet into openers for as much as I'm allowed to, but the limits are often pretty low.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 03-12-16, 03:41 PM

It's one of the basics of bookmaking: let the money shape the lines, raise the limits a bit, let it get shaped a bit more, repeat until max limits.

If this didn't work pinnacle and the Asian books would have long since gone out of business, because near close they'd be offering soft lines at max limits.

**zlaroc** · 03-12-16, 07:24 PM

Warriors !!!

**semibluff** · 04-12-16, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by IMightBluff

I know fundamentally on how the opening lines are made, and how vig is added to them ect. However I am not really sure if my understanding of the closing lines is correct. Any confirmation or clarification would be greatly appreciated

So my understanding is that the opening line by the book is made by their estimate of what the win % is of each team + vig. For this example I will use -200 / +150. Using a remove vig calculator http://www.onlinebetting.com/remove-vig/

Team A -200 = 59.46%
Team B +150 = 40.54%

Now I understand that the lines move as a result of how much money get's bet on each side to keep the relative ratio the same. However if we use our example and the lines goes to something like -250 / +150

Team A -250 = 64.10%
Team B +150 = 35.90%

From my understanding of this scenario. The book made odds, than has discovered new information ect and adjusted the line to account for the new win % of Team A.

Question
Are the closing odds the most accurate depiction of the true win % of a team? Or would the opening odds be the most accurate win % of the team, since the way they change around the lines to adjust for bets would move the win% as well after removing the vig.

Yes, I know this is probably a noob question. However I am just really curious on how this works. I really appreciate the help from anyone

Some of your numbers are way off.

On a -200 +150 2 outcome event the total book is 106.667%, (66.667% and 40%). Removing the book mark-up, (reducing it back to 100%), would give you 62.5% and 37.5%.

If the market moved from -200 to -250 there would be an opposite movement in the opposing price, probably to +180. The 50 point movement on the favourite side would NOT be matched by an equal 50 point match on the underdog side. If it was matched the bookie would be reducing his total book % below his expected margin. British bookies would generally be aiming for around 106.5% on a 2 outcome event. On a -250 +180 event the total book is 107.143%, (71.429% and 35.714%). Removing the book mark-up, (reducing it back to 100%), would give you 66.667% and 33.333%.

On your example of a -250 +150 2 outcome event the total book would be 111.429%, (71.429% and 40%). Removing the book mark-up, (reducing it back to 100%), would give you 64.103% and 35.897%. (You were correct here).

I wish I could find punters who were happy to bet on 111% 2 outcome books.

**TheMoneyShot** · 04-13-16, 12:08 AM

Opening odds in baseball are PRIME.

Any other sport.... not necessary.