How do you calculate how good of a number you got on late movement?

**Pancho sanza** · 04-23-09, 02:30 PM

If you got +130 on a market that closed -150/+130, even though its the best possible #, you still have negative ev, assuming you use the closing # to gauge your edge.

-3.36 % is your (non) edge there

**u21c3f6** · 04-23-09, 02:43 PM

Here is how I see it.

The "efficiency" of the lines is over ALL the lines. So unless you have a wager on ALL the lines, you can not IMO effectively figure out your value compared to the individual lines. Once you don't get a bet on ALL the lines you have a subset of lines that may or may not be as efficient as ALL the lines. You may be able to "beat" the lines that don't perform as well as they should based on the line.

For me, I judge "value" based on my subset of wagers. Once I identify an edge over a series of like wagers, I "know" where and what the value is and I am not concerned about what the line is and/or if I beat any particular line. Of course I look for the best line but not as a confirmation of my wager, just to get a better price. Only if my wagers do not produce the "expected" edge will I then reexamine my reasons for betting on my subset of wagers. I hope this made sense.

Joe.

**Arilou** · 04-23-09, 03:05 PM

Betting right at the end, or "sniping" as it is sometimes called is a clear exception to looking to line movement to evaluate your games. You're not giving the line a chance to move other than off your own action, so your line movement if you are small will always be negative by this metric. However, by waiting for the closing line you are saying that you can win against the closing line! Otherwise, you would bet early or not at all.

Line movement is a good way of evaluating your tactics, but is only the final word if your strategy is to win by beating the closing lines or otherwise playing the market rather than choosing what you consider the sharp/correct sides of games. You will give a way a lot without good tactics, but they are only one side of the equation.

If you liked the dog the whole way and chose to wait until the last minute, at which point you get the best price available all day, your tactics were strong even if you don't have +ev on pure line movement. If you took the dog because it got that high, your tactics are neither good nor bad; you are simply taking what you consider value.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-24-09, 06:22 AM

Originally posted by VegasDave

A good indicator of the value of your bet is how much you beat the closing line by, if I understand correctly.

If you bet a favorite at -130 and it closes at -145, you beat the closing line by 15 points and are in good shape value-wise.

But lets say a favorite is getting pounded hard and you get the dog at the last possible minute. The line was -120/+100, but the line gets pounded down to -150/+130. You bet it at +130, and it is taken off the board.

You got the best possible number on the dog, but you didn't "beat" the closing number, you got the closing number. So what do you use to gauge this bet's value?

When you handicap a game, you should be evaluating a win probability and subsequently deriving a fair value line from which you can determine whether there is value on a particular side or not. This is where a model generally comes into play. Then based on your determined fair value line, you can calculate your perceived edge. In your example, if you are betting into an efficient market your wager is almost certainly -EV. And you really aren't "getting the closing number" as the closing number would really be the no vig line of +138 for the dog rather than +130. This would give you an edge of -3.361% on your wager if you were betting into an efficient market. The only way that you could have an edge on that particular wager is if you determined FV to be +129 or less for the dog. Without determining FV, the only thing you can measure it against is the no vig closer of an efficient market, if one exists.

**Data** · 04-24-09, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by VegasDave

A good indicator of the value of your bet is how much you beat the closing line by, if I understand correctly.

True.

So what do you use to gauge this bet's value?

There are two possibilities.

1) If you make your own lines then you should be calculating what edge your line has over the closing line. So, in this case the answer is going to entirely depend on your line.

2) If you do not make your own lines and want to gauge your ability to beat the closing line then in that case the answer is zero (it's slightly negative, to be precise).

**Neil Nollidge** · 04-24-09, 08:43 AM

My 20 cents worth: If I get on at -130, and it closes at -145, I like to know the juice level before I decide that I'm in good shape, though if I have done my homework, and the juice level has not increased drasticly, then I suppose that I am in good shape. Ok, make it 5 cents worth.