1. #1
    _bester_tuff
    _bester_tuff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-01-11
    Posts: 25
    Betpoints: 2540

    How asian bookies determine odds for obscure leagues?

    Hi,
    I am wondering how those bookies, e.g. sbo, ibc come up with odds for less known leagues (euro soccer leagues like lower divs. of Scandinavia or Turkey that news are usually not up on the internet). Euro bookies usually tend to take on odds setters from various european countriens so that have more or less covered different regions or just copy from other companies I reckon. But how do asian bookies work it out? Do they maybe have kinda local guys that are not necesarily working there on every day basic but just supply them with every weekend round-up or what?

  2. #2
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,809
    Betpoints: 494

    Generally they will let the market tell them the right range.

    They will open with odds based on a fairly standard Goals for/Goals against formula/model (adjusted for injury news and other commonly known information) but with high juice and low limits. One a true market has began to form they will raise those limits.

    Betfair is the another proxy that they can use.

  3. #3
    _bester_tuff
    _bester_tuff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-01-11
    Posts: 25
    Betpoints: 2540

    Thanks. Do you think their mathematics differ that much from those at euro bookies, seems they always know better? Anytime I try to back away team (from Poland soccer) they come out with 2.80-2.90 whist in major euro i can get like 3.4 for clear win or even more somewhere as long as it does not make arbs of course.
    Last edited by _bester_tuff; 02-07-12 at 01:48 PM.

  4. #4
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,809
    Betpoints: 494

    Quote Originally Posted by _bester_tuff View Post
    Thanks. Do you think their mathematics differ that much from those at euro bookies, seems they always know better? Anytime I try to back away team (from Poland soccer) they come out with 2.80-2.90 whist in major euro i can get like 3.4 for clear win or even more somewhere as long as it does not make arbs of course.
    I think this is just a case of some Euro books (Stan James, Bet365, Victor Chandler etc.) knowingly juicing home teams and favourites.

    Customers that bet into the value they hang on the outsiders/away teams are the customers that they quickly limit. It is not dissimilar to what Bodog/SIA do with US Sports.

  5. #5
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 1108

    I remember seeing Bet365 dealing a live soccer match in my city that NO ONE would give a shit about. THis isn't even like a tier below MLS this is like 3rd tier soccer in Canada where all they players are amateurs and probably play for free with real jobs during the week.

  6. #6
    Fair
    Fair's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-10
    Posts: 216
    Betpoints: 146

    Interesting thread. I have two questions for you guys, especially for FourLenghtsClear.
    1) How do you calcuate fair odds for soccer? I mean, which formula you think is the most accurate to determinate a fair odd? Overall goal difference? Home/Away goal difference? Do you consider last 4, last 6 form? Or you consider all of this statistics put together?

    2) When you study odds movement, which bookie do you consider the most trustable? Which bookie you look for the opening odd? I've noticed that sbobet open very early, but then it change a lot before others bookie open. Maybe Pinnacle is the best to look for, but for example bet365, even if it's a small bookie, have a linear odds movement.
    Thanks for your answer

  7. #7
    jgilmartin
    jgilmartin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-31-09
    Posts: 1,119

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Interesting thread. I have two questions for you guys, especially for FourLenghtsClear.
    1) How do you calcuate fair odds for soccer? I mean, which formula you think is the most accurate to determinate a fair odd? Overall goal difference? Home/Away goal difference? Do you consider last 4, last 6 form? Or you consider all of this statistics put together?

    2) When you study odds movement, which bookie do you consider the most trustable? Which bookie you look for the opening odd? I've noticed that sbobet open very early, but then it change a lot before others bookie open. Maybe Pinnacle is the best to look for, but for example bet365, even if it's a small bookie, have a linear odds movement.
    Thanks for your answer
    I'm sure FLC will have his own answer for your questions, but:

    1. Honestly (and no offense intended), no one with any idea of how to accurately determine fair odds is going to tell you how they do it (particularly on a public forum), as 1. they have spent countless hours working on their model and 2. it would be totally counterproductive as it would most likely eliminate any edge they currently have.

    2. For me, SBO

  8. #8
    Salmon Steak
    Salmon Steak's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 2,111
    Betpoints: 316

    I have a friend that worked for some asian guy he never met. They had him go to all Seattle (MLS) home games. He had to be on the phone the entire game with someone else he never met. It was good money, but it was a pain being on the phone the whole game and he quit. I don't think he had a real good feeling about the situation anyway.

  9. #9
    Kolotoure
    Kolotoure's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-28-12
    Posts: 28
    Betpoints: 654

    Quote Originally Posted by Salmon Steak View Post
    I have a friend that worked for some asian guy he never met. They had him go to all Seattle (MLS) home games. He had to be on the phone the entire game with someone else he never met. It was good money, but it was a pain being on the phone the whole game and he quit. I don't think he had a real good feeling about the situation anyway.
    Why wouldn't they just use running ball like everyone else?

Top